You can’t afford NOT to own this stock

Good morning!

‍Futures are up slightly as I type which suggests Wall Street is still leery about Jerome Powell’s commentary later this week from the Jackson Black Hole.

Don’t waste the opportunity!

Here’s my playbook.

What Nordstroms & Macy’s earnings tell us

Nordstroms and Macys are both “canaries in the coalmine” when it comes to retail stocks. Here’s my take on why I won’t own either. And, what I’ll buy instead. (Watch)

The big picture. Consumers are still spending but what they’re buying and where has changed.

We’ve seen this movie before. Anybody hoping it’ll be different this time around will be sadly mistaken. Not all retail is equal.

Twitter whistleblower = more ammo for Musk

I caught a lot of flack for suggesting that Elon Musk knew exactly what he was doing when he walked away from Twitter citing bots, misinformation, and mismanagement.

Now, I feel vindicated.

Whistleblower Peiter Zatko broke the story wide open with allegations about egregious security violations, fake accounts and more. Perhaps most importantly, he said point blank that Twitter lied to Elon Musk, which has been my contention all along. (Read)

New regulatory trouble. Like any public company, Twitter has to make regular regulatory filings which means that it doesn’t just have an acquisition problem like most people think. I think Zatko’s got Parag Agrawal and other C-level execs dead to rights, or he wouldn’t be making the statements he is.

Fresh ammo for Musk. It’s one thing to be incompetent but lying is another thing entirely. Zatko alleges Twitter acted with “negligence and even complicity” in letters sent to the SEC, Justice Department and FTC.

Trade or fade. Too hot to do either at this point.

Thought bubble. I find it very telling that Team Zuckerberg has said zippo on the issue because normally he wouldn’t miss the opportunity to stick it to a competitor. Makes me think META has similar problems and, critically, they know it. Not coincidentally, the company just reached a $37.5 million settlement for User Privacy Violations and it’s just the tip of the Zuckerberg … sorry, I couldn’t resist!

Get ahead of the next shift in food

Texas ranchers are being forced to cull herds because of a drought affecting 93% of the state since mid-July. And that will result in higher beef prices. (Read) Futures would be the logical move but that’s already been priced in.

The better investment is alternative food sources. Extreme weather is going to get more extreme which suggests that traditional ranching will come under severe pressure. That will impact every element of the food chain from feed to the hoof, to the market and ultimately your table.

Get ahead of the curve. My favorite pick is in the One Bar Ahead™ model portfolio – and, BTW, it’s not Beyond Meat. (Join today and get access)

Apple’s latest offshore move

Apple will start manufacturing their brand-new iPhone 14 in India, with a projected start date of November this year. This shows a marked change from their traditional model of almost exclusively using factories in China. (Read)

Nikkei Asia reported recently that Apple is also in talks to build the Apple Watch and MacBook models in Vietnam. HomePod production could be on tap, too. (Read)

What this tells me: Apple clearly recognizes the headwinds China’s creating as well as the potential impact on its bottom line. So, they’re shifting production to more friendly areas that will help ensure production capacity while also maintaining profit margins. Super smart move.

What I’m saying. Most investors could double Apple shares and still not have enough.

Maybe it won’t be there overnight

Driving the news. Spencer Patton is one of the largest private carriers in the FedEx network and he told an audience of more than 4,000 FedEx contractors that he may shutter his business by November 25th if the company doesn’t take concrete steps to help contractors with inflationary pressures.

The intrigue. FedEx has interpreted Patton’s comments as an ultimatum and a deadline which – ta-da – is exactly what they are. This isn’t a surprise … many FedEx contractors have seen costs skyrocket even as e-commerce demand has levelled or fallen post-pandemic.

The trade Idea. FedEx is traditionally a holiday play, but Patton’s move could really jam things coming into the holiday season if he makes good. Speculative bearish puts may be the thing meanwhile.

Bottom Line

Buy stocks like you buy groceries.

On sale.

Keith

P.S. For those of you in the OBA Family, all 4 sessions from the August Masterclass series have been uploaded into the archives. (Click here to access ‘em)