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☕️ Why I’m revising my year-end S&P 500 target significantly higher

Jun 30, 2025

Howdy! 👋

It’s a holiday shortened week here in the United States where our nation is making ready to celebrate the 4th of July.

Historically, big traders lay off the gas so to speak. Then, head for the Hamptons or whatever family haunt they prefer for a few days off.

Not this year.

All three indices are firmly in the green as I type, which tells me they’re still hard at work… buying. At least for now anyway.

Makes sense.

You wouldn’t believe how many of ‘em are on the wrong side of the ‘ol fence because they missed the rally off April lows, if the scuttlebutt is even halfway accurate.

They’ve got to buy if a) they want their year-end bonuses and b) to avoid clients asking tough questions about why they don’t own this company or that one at the end of the year.

Thank goodness we don’t have that problem!

I repeatedly encouraged you to buy during the worst of the sell-off this spring and sure as heck hope you did!

Remember something you hear me say frequently.

Investing in optimism beats cowering in pessimism any day of the week!

Here’s my playbook.

1 – What if it does work?

I’ve seen it time and again over the past 45+ years I’ve spent in global markets.

Investors worry incessantly about losing and, not surprisingly, that’s exactly what they do over time.

The most successful investors, on the other hand, constantly focus on “what could go right” and constantly play to that outcome. Think of it as the financial version of hockey legend Wayne Gretzky skating to where the puck will be.

I encourage you to do the same thing… often at the risk of sounding like a broken record.

MyPOV is that we live in one of the most exciting times in human history and, I submit, there is more profit potential up for grabs in the next 10 years than the last 50 combined.

The profit potential is simply staggering when you don’t let fear hold you back.

Perhaps not surprisingly given how I see the world, that’s why I’m revising my year end S&P 500 target significantly higher to 7,000 – with the caveat that may even be too conservative!

Here’s my take as to why with the venerable Stuart Varney who asked me about just that ahead of today's opening bell. Along with Tesla and why I think every other car maker should be terrified in their mahogany lined boardrooms this morning. (Watch)

2 – Canada does an immediate “about face”

Imagine that. 🤦‍

Canada has already backed down from its planned digital services tax that would have slapped a 3% levy on American tech giants like Google, Meta, and Amazon, retroactive to 2022. (Read)

‘Nuff said.

And as always, I am speaking purely from a financial perspective.

I do money, not politics.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Many people want to inject politics into finance but money doesn’t care which side of the aisle you’re on. It will always flow to where it’s treated best. Your portfolio will thank you when you learn how to get your money there first.

3 – Moderna flu vax paves the way for a combo Covid shot

We’re on the cusp of customizable medicine and this paves the way for a standalone flu vaccine called mRNA-1010 later this year if approved. (Read)

Many folks will stop cold when they hear those words… flu… vaccine… Covid… and approval in the same sentence.

I get it but, frankly, that’s moot.

What you and I want to be thinking about from an investing standpoint is where this technology could go within the next few years. And how much money will be on the table when it does.

Moderna is a great investment, but I prefer a few other key names on that front because I believe they have better profit potential and a more aggressive development pipeline. I also happen to like the dividends better because I’m kinda funny about cold hard cash in that department. 🤷🏻‍

I’ll be here if you’d like to learn more and will take no offense whatsoever if you've got this covered (and I hope you do because the profit potential is simply ginormous).

Meanwhile, I’m happy to trim profits and free up capital for the next leg higher, as noted with the fabulous Kelly Evans on CNBC this past Friday. (Watch)

4 – Is green energy done if the Big Beautiful Bill passes?

Hardly, despite what Unka Elon and others say.

Think about it.

The pace of innovation is accelerating.

So is the energy demand to power it all.

And that means new profit potential, no subsidies needed.

I have my bets placed.

You?

Btw, and if you’d like some help sorting out what’s what, you may find One Bar Ahead® helpful and, hopefully, like scores of other like-minded investors tell me is the case, profitable, too.

5 – TikTok buyers or a Chinese olive branch?

President Trump says he has a group of “very wealthy people” ready to buy TikTok’s U.S. business, with their names to be revealed in about two weeks. (Read)

The deal would still need Beijing’s approval, and it’s unclear if ByteDance is willing to sell. This comes after President Trump extended the deadline for ByteDance to divest TikTok for the third time, pushing the ban date to September 17.

Potential buyers reportedly include Oracle’s Larry Ellison, AppLovin, and Perplexity AI, but legal and geopolitical hurdles remain. The President credits TikTok with boosting his popularity among young voters and wants to keep the app running under new ownership.

I’m sure there’s more to the story.

If I know Beijing even half as well as I think I do based on decades of experience in the Asian Rim, my guess is that any sale will be announced as part of a new “trade” deal highlighting some sort of carefully crafted language intended to convey to the world that both countries are making nicey nice.

Would I own it if the stock ever sees the light of day as a public company?

Likely not.

Those same “very wealthy people” will want their profits first which means that the investing public will be given scraps at the children’s table after the big money makes bank.