Where the markets go from here and what to buy beforehand
Aug 25, 2021Good morning!
Futures are sitting at record high levels ahead of remarks from Fed Chairman J. Powell.
Here’s my playbook.
1 – What the numbers tell us about where the markets go from here
There have been 9 instances since 1931 when the S&P 500 has risen more than 10% during the first 8 months of the year. The index then continued to rise another 8.4% on average over the remaining 4 months of each year. Not one instance produced a negative return.
It all comes down to J. Powell.
Watch my take with Maria Bartiromo earlier this morning
2 – What kind of bonehead buys the news when everybody already knows the news?
That was Jim Cramer’s take on yesterday’s rally following news that Pfizer’s vaccine received FDA approval.
Mine is perhaps a bit simpler, no insults needed. It’s FOMO (fear of missing out).
People who have missed the rally because they were scared, uncertain or ambiguous about the virus are now realizing they’ve got to catch up. So they’re keen to buy stocks even if they have to pay up.
There are a lot of “ifs” of course … if the Fed threads the needle, if politics don’t wreck the rally, if geopolitics calm down. But that’s a question of risk management. I expect traders to try a head fake later this week to shake the weak money out which is, of course, an opportunity … not something to fear.
Be in to win or you won’t … win.
I’m going shopping!
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3 – Last person out of California, turn out the lights
We talked about this early in the pandemic and the data increasingly backs up my assertion that California is simply too expensive, not to mention business-hostile. Las Vegas is a primary destination as is Washington State where prices continue to increase and out of state buyers are flush with cash.
4 – Must solve problems = must own stocks - here’s the list
The United States has several primary problems it MUST solve including cybersecurity, the AI arms race, digital currency, and U.S. China relations. Our nation will not survive if we don’t. Trillions will get spent to ensure we do!
Wanna know which stocks to buy?
Start with today’s presidential invite list. Names include The CEO of Apple, Tim Cook, Amazon.com CEO Andy Jassy, Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai, and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella. Also on the list are other prominent chief executives including Bank of America’s Brian Moynihan, JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon, and IBM's Arvind Krishna.
5 – RIP Charlie Watts, my friend
Like many, I was caught by surprise yesterday by news that Rolling Stones drummer Charlie Watts passed away. It hit me hard. You see, I met him in Seattle where the band played two shows as part of their American Tour to promote Tattoo You. At once a gentleman and a musician, he was exceptionally kind to me … a die-hard, starry-eyed young fan. We talked for several moments before he said simply, "I enjoyed meeting you; I need to join the band now" with a smile, a handshake and a wave. What class!
Thank you for the music, Mr. Watts.
Bottom Line
The late Steve Jobs said something in 2005 to Stanford University’s graduating class and I find myself thinking about that today considering Charlie Watts’ death.
“Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life. Don’t be trapped by dogma – which is living with the results of other people’s thinking.”
Jobs was right.
Live your life on your terms
Do your own thinking.
Invest to create the wealth that makes that possible.
Repeat as many times as needed.
You got this – I promise.
As always, make it a GREAT day!
Keith
PS: We’re only a few weeks away from the Las Vegas MoneyShow and I’d love for you to join me! I’ll be delivering a keynote address, hosting panels with such folks as Steve Forbes, Stephen Moore, Ray Wang and more. I’ll also be teaching two breakout sessions that could give you just the edge you need when it comes to beating today’s market volatility and leveraging what you know to find tomorrow’s winners.
