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When everybody knows something: TWTR

Oct 06, 2022

Good morning!

‍The funk continues with futures settling back into negative to flat territory after two higher runs this week. All eyes are on jobs because traders are worried about how the Fed will react to the numbers.

Spoiler Alert: they don’t give a rip about the jobs number itself.

Here’s my playbook.

OPEC+ Ignores Biden as expected

No surprise: OPEC+ ignores the President’s request and cuts 2 million barrels a day, 1 million more than originally planned. Biden’s ordered another SPR release of 10 million barrels next month but that’s politics and nothing more. Now, he’s talking about reducing Venezuelan oil sanctions to allow more pumping. (Read)

What he needs to do is the same thing he should have been doing all along … re-engaging US production. The solution is literally right under our feet, costs less and provides US jobs in a market that desperately needs ‘em.

I think prices hit $105-$110 by Q1 ’23 at the latest.

Oil stocks are still wildly undervalued. Steady pricing, great growth, solid dividends. What is there not to love?

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Under $10 a share and worth a punt?

Insider buying can be an important signal that there’s something interesting ahead. But that can take on new importance when it’s the CEO and CFO who pile in.

That’s the case with L.B. Foster (FSTR) where the CEO and CFO both added to their holdings last month according to filings. The company is trading for just $9.95 and may be inexpensive enough for a speculative punt if that fits with your situation, risk tolerance and intestinal fortitude (none of which I know). As always, it is your money and your responsibility.

I bought a few shares this morning just for the heckuvit, FYI. My plan is to harvest a quick 25% if the markets give me that opportunity. If not, oh well.

Peloton cutting another 500 jobs in “final” round of layoffs

What’s happening. Wall Street is trying its very best to paint a rosy picture now that Peloton has announced a “final” round of 500 job cuts. (Read)

The company is dead money. Peloton stock has now dropped 91.3% from 52-week highs. This may be good for a few bucks is what a lot of folks are thinking but … really?

Still a $2 stock IMHO. Or at least an “avoid like the plague.”

TWTR: the hijinks continue

Twitter reportedly intends to hold Musk to his original deal after reports suggesting that two key financiers – Apollo Global Management and Sixth Street – have walked. Meanwhile, the judge who is in charge of the looming litigation between Musk and Twitter says the trial is still on. (Read)

I suspect Musk is up to his usual hijinks by creating a situation that is at once a distraction and a poker-like move intended to make Twitter blink.

One way to trade the situation. Everybody “knows” that Twitter wants to bring the original deal home which makes me want to look at the other side of the situation. That’s why I recommended buying a few speculative puts yesterday to Trade With Keith subscribers.

From the department of it’s about time: UBER

Former Uber security chief Joseph Sullivan has been convicted by a federal jury in San Francisco for covering up a hack that exposed 57 million users. (Read)

Why this is a big deal. It’s the first prosecution of an executive for such things. And, long overdue. Let’s hope the companies get the message!

Trade Idea: If you’re not buying cybersecurity companies, you are asleep at the switch.

Shares of my favourite are dirt cheap thanks to the ongoing selloff which is why, of course, I recommended it to One Bar Ahead® readers interested in long-term growth and massive upside profit potential. Upgrade to Paid