What to buy right now and why
Mar 08, 2022Good morning!
The markets are wobbly this morning after the S&P 500’s worst day in 17 months and the Nazzy (Nasdaq) is now in bear market territory.
People immediately jump to the negative when news like this hits but that’s a mistake. Logical … but a mistake, nonetheless.
The night is always darkest before dawn.
Case in point, the average bear market is right around 110 days long according to Dow Jones Markets Data with an average gain of 13% when it’s over.
Interestingly, big caps got sold hard towards the end of yesterday’s session which tells me two things: a) that somebody was raising a boatload of cash and/or that a big firm blew up and b) it’s time to start working back because buying lower and selling higher is exactly what you want to do.
It's too early to let go of hedges but not too early to think about upside even if there’s more downside ahead.
Here’s my playbook.
1 – Crude jumps (again)
WTI is approaching $124 a barrel while Brent is at $128 ahead of news that the US will be banning Russian oil without European participation and including both LNG and coal.
Will be great for CVX, which I named specifically yesterday as a stock investors with a 2-5 year time horizon should own. (Watch)
But it’ll suck for the average American family which will pay $2,000 more for gas this year according to my friend and colleague, Ed Yardini. (Read)
Russia, BTW has said oil will hit $300 a barrel and will cut off European gas if the West bans oil imports. (Read)
2 – Google beats Microsoft to the punch
Google just beat Microsoft to Mandiant for a $5.4 billion buy. Mandiant makes cloud cybersecurity, a key market we’ve discussed many times over. (Read)
If you are not thinking about cybersecurity, you are not thinking when it comes to your money.
The age where this is about personal identity theft – which is how most people think about it – is long gone.
Cybercrime will cost the world more than $10.5 trillion a year by 2025 and fuel an entirely new generation of millionaires who invest in the right stocks now.
I’ve got a few ideas if you’re interested. (Learn More)
3 – Here comes Xi’s charm offensive
I told you that China would position itself as the bastion of reason and that’s started today with Xi calling for “maximum restraint” in Ukraine.
The Western media, of course, is saying that these are his harshest comments yet for Russia which is a key economic and strategic ally and they’re right it is. (Read)
Only they’re not harsh at all.
China will use the situation to benefit China under the guise of brokering a truce or somehow riding to the rescue.
Very few Western journalists understand the bigger game being played here.
China and Russia are carving the world up and the US is being marginalized unwittingly. Mark my words, history will ultimately show that this contingency was absolutely discussed before the Olympics.
Continue to steer clear of Chinese stocks with only a few very specific exceptions.
4 – Piper Sandler cuts Meta target from $301 to $240
After it closed at $187.47 – thanks fellas! That’s telling ‘em!
Meanwhile, I’m beginning to wonder about $150 or even $125.
5 – On this day…
The New York Stock and Exchange Board was formed on this day, in 1817. The name was shortened to the New York Stock Exchange in 1863 and continues to this day.
Many folks are surprised to learn that there was an actual “Wall Street” from 1685 – 1699 and early trading took place under a buttonwood tree. You can read more about its fascinating history here.
Bottom Line
There’s a ‘uuuuge difference between “buying the dip” blindly because you can and buying the right stocks when they dip.
I’m adding to shares of the “best” today myself.
Let’s MAKE it a great day!
Keith