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☕️ What’s on my “list” and why

May 01, 2025

Howdy! 👋

Here we go again.

Jobless claims surged to 241,000, more than expected in what is being billed as the latest sign of economic trouble. (Read)

That may be true, but don’t fall for it.

Traders are looking at that same headline and drooling because they think that it’ll put more pressure on Unka Powell to cut rates which, in turn, makes it cheaper to borrow all the juice they need to leverage up and get to buying. The really aggressive ones are already getting ahead of that today, in fact.

Moral of the story?

Learn to live with Wall Street even if you’re not on Wall Street.

Your portfolio will thank you.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Can you spell Grand Slam?

‘Cause that’s what Microsoft turned in yesterday. (Read)

If I had a dollar for every naysayer who’s told me it’s slowing down, too expensive because you know… valuations 🤦‍️, that it’s not monetizing AI and more…

Azure cloud revenue is growing by 33%, with 16 points of that directly tied to AI demand. Management now expects Azure to grow 34–35% next quarter, well above estimates.

As for the AI slowdown so many earnest-looking, hand-wringing pundits and clickbait artists talked about beforehand?

What slowdown?!?!

CapEx surged 53% to $16.75B as Microsoft races to scale its AI infrastructure, with CEO Satya Nadella confirming plans to spend $80B in fiscal 2025 building out AI-ready data centers.

The only fear I have is that I don’t own enough shares.

See yesterday’s #3 for more context and why I make that statement.

Btw, there are really only 5-10 companies that matter when it comes to AI and your money. By that I mean are quite literally worth your money and the risk you take as an owner. Hopefully, you’ve got this covered and narrowed down to a short list of your own.

If not, I’d love to toss my hat in the ring with a selfless promotion for One Bar Ahead®, our paid research which has helped smart investors in 35+ countries chart a path forward for decades.

2 – What’s on “my list”

The fabulous Kelly Evans and Dominic Chu invited me back to CNBC yesterday for a wide-ranging chat about current market conditions and what’s on my list. (Watch)

Buy the best, ignore the rest has never looked so good!

3 - “China is not behind” in the AI race

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang just delivered a wake-up call: “China is not behind” in the AI race - and in some areas, they may be closer than the U.S. wants to admit. (Read)

You’ve heard me say that for years, but that’s beside the point.

Speaking at a tech event, Unka Jensen called Huawei “one of the most formidable technology companies in the world,” and reminded everyone that this is an “infinite race” - long-term, relentless, and far from over.

This isn’t just about earnings or chip shipments anymore.

It’s a global power play… winner takes all.

Just like Musk understands BYD, Huang clearly understands Huawei.

Huawei, btw, will also likely make a run at Apple, something Tim Cook is undoubtedly aware of, too.

4 – I’m itching to short META

El Zucko & Co, meanwhile, turned in a top line beat but didn’t pass muster bottom line as expenses continue to rise while the company tries to keep up. (Read)

I’m not sure that’s going to be possible and am itching to short it.

Zuck mentioned that an EU decision could result in a worse user experience there which is executive speak for he can’t figure out how to turn a buck at their expense as easily.

I am also impressed – but remain concerned – that the Reality Labs Hardware Division is such a train wreck. That was a big part of the “bait and switch” from Facebook to Meta in the first place if you recall.

And finally, the company expects a drop in online advertising as a portion of Asian based – read mainly Chinese – spending is shunted to other markets.

Putskies?

5 – Tesla denies Musk is out

Elon's not going anywhere… at least, according to Tesla.

Rumors ripped through the tape yesterday suggesting the board was quietly shopping for a new CEO. The company hit back fast, denying the claim entirely. (Read)

I hope not, frankly.

Say what you will about Musk, but without him, Tesla’s valuation math doesn’t work. He’s not just the CEO—he is the story, the sizzle, the secret sauce.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Never confuse leadership risk with company risk… unless they’re the same person.

Trade Idea: if you think the Musk premium holds like I do, any weakness is a buying opportunity if you have a 3-5 year horizon. If not or you’re a trader, puts are cheap enough that it seems to me there could be one helluva hedge at the $160-170 level to carry ya’ through summer.