The only indicator I know that has NEVER been wrong

Good morning! 👋

Higher oil prices and the dawning awareness that the USD is in real trouble may roil markets for a bit.

Do NOT get distracted!

Here’s my playbook.

What people are getting wrong about Tesla price cuts

Wall Street is abuzz that Tesla will announce more price cuts. Case in point: Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi wrote that “we maintain that price cuts have and will undermine industry profitability (including Tesla’s”). (Read)

Umm.

Last time I checked, Tesla’s margins were double or even triple those of major competitors, which means—you guessed it—Team Musk is operating from a position of strength. Not weakness.

Cutting prices when you can afford to, and others cannot, boosts competitiveness. It also boosts profit margins over time. Share prices, of course, will follow!

LowBall Orders at the ready. Selling some really “steep and deep” Cash-Secured Puts or put spreads could work nicely, too.

I am so tired of Yellen’s nonsense

Now she says that the surprise OPEC+ production cut is an “unconstructive act” that could hurt US efforts to lower inflation. (Read)

Like OPEC+ gives a rat’s asteroids!!

OPEC+ is reacting to China’s charm offensive, Russian inputs, and India’s machinations. The last thing they’ll do is cut the US a break at a time when the US dollar is failing.

More Chevron.

$100 a barrel.

Customer rage and revenge on the rise

A record-high 74% of Americans are experiencing problems with products and services. That’s up from just 56% in 2017. (Read)

What gives?

A massive disconnect.

80% of companies think their customer service is going well, according to Amas Tenumah, a customer service expert. Only 8% of customers do.

I was one of ‘em yesterday.

One part of my company ran out of storage space, and rather than notifying me, Microsoft simply froze all editing for my team and me. No notice, nothing. Just bammo…

Okay, I thought to myself; no problem, I’ll just buy more.

No such bananas.

The telephone number kept directing me to online help, and the website kept directing me to call. The business services unit insisted that I had a home office product while the storage guys wouldn’t let me log in using my business email.

Six calls and 63 wasted minutes later, I finally did get a very courteous customer service rep who knew her stuff and who walked me through the process (which required visiting 6 different screens and resetting 45 gazillion permissions).

Am I ready to sell my Microsoft stock?

No.

But I’m sure as heck going to think twice the next time I see an even halfway viable alternative!

Companies have cut costs to the bone at a time when civil distrust and social pressure are reaching the boiling point. I am not surprised one bit.

More than a century of data says NOW is a good time to put money to work

Opinions are like bellybuttons. Everyone has one.

Data is a different story.

Case in point, Crestmont Research data shows that there have been 104 rolling 20-year periods since 1919. 100% of ‘em (yep—104 of 104 total) show a positive annualized total return. (Read)

Put another way, you would have made money 100% of the time if you had bought and held for 20 years, regardless of when you made your initial purchase.

What are you waiting for?

Find the world’s best companies, hold your nose, and wade in.

To a point I made last Friday with the wonderful Lauren Simonetti on FOX Business, the single biggest mistake an investor can make now is to underestimate the future. (Watch/Listen)

$4.5B missile contract goes to…

The US Army has awarded a $4.5 billion missile contract to Lockheed Martin.

Makes sense.

The Pentagon has finally woken up to the need to deter China.

I hope I’m smart enough to buy more shares.

Meanwhile, I’m also going to be looking closely at another defense contractor that’s just gotten on my radar—pun absolutely intended. And I’ll be sharing my thinking with the One Bar Ahead® Family first when the time comes. Upgrade to paid

Bottom Line

Want to beat Wall Street?

1. Pick fights Wall Street has no interest in defending.
2. Change your tactics to take away their advantage.

Now and as always, get out there and MAKE it a great day!

Keith 😊