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Tech Ace Dan Ives and I agree

Oct 03, 2022

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The markets seem determined to make up some lost ground this morning, but I am not certain it’ll last. Traders are going to want to clean out the weak money in a hurry this morning to the upside.

Here’s my playbook.

Credit Suisse: Move along, nothing to see here

Turns out I may have been right all along. The bank is trading at record lows while the bank's credit default swaps are at record highs.

No wonder the rumour mill was in overdrive this weekend. The speculation is that Credit Suisse was at risk of default over Credit Default Swaps. Naturally, the bank doesn’t agree and has been taking steps to reassure shareholders that it’s okay … which is almost a guarantee that it’s not. (Read) Other institutions rumored to be at risk include Deutsche Bank and possibly Barclays which led the charge for UK banks early on in Covid. (Read)

Why this matters. Banks use CDS (Credit Default Swaps) to manage credit risk exposure related to credit enhancements, regulatory capital relief, and more. The fact that Credit Suisse CEO says the bank is at a “critical moment” makes me leery.

US banks could take a hit if the story has legs. Primary exposure includes JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and BofA among others.

Oil at $105 - $110 by Q1 or sooner

OPEC is meeting to discuss production cuts (again) which means higher prices ahead, especially if they cut the 1+ million barrels being bandied about in the news.

Last chance to buy oil stocks for another run higher.

I’ve got my fav … and everyone in the One Bar Ahead® Family who is following along as directed has had the opportunity to ride this to double-digit gains even as the S&P 500 went tumbling.

I’ll have 2 fresh recommendations this Friday when the October issue publishes, BTW. One may have at least 60% upside while the other could be an ideal solution for investors in search of income. Upgrade to Paid

Beer companies into canned cocktails

Several major beer companies are getting into the canned cocktail market. The move is to counter fading demand for “hard seltzer” drinks that have been all the rage of late. Makes sense, RTD (ready to drink cocktails) were the fastest growing spirits category last year while hard seltzer sales dropped by -5.5%. (Read)

Trade Idea: Consider a “pairs” trade buying a stronger player like Anheuser-Busch Inbev while shorting a weaker player like Boston Beer that overbought into the seltzer craze.

Dan Ives and I agree: AAPL MSFT TSLA

I joined the fantastic Stuart Varney this morning for a rapid-fire conversation about UK Gilts, US markets, and big tech.

Imagine my surprise when Stuart told me that tech Ace Dan Ives was sitting next to him as I laid out my price targets for Apple, Tesla, and Microsoft!

What an honour to learn that Dan and I agree and that our price targets are nearly identical, BTW! (Watch)

PTON to put bikes in every US Hilton

Peloton reached a deal to put bikes in all 5,400 Hilton-owned hotels in the United States. According to the company the deal includes placement in all 18 of the hotelier’s subsidiaries too. Hampton Inn, Doubletree, Embassy Suites etc. (Read)

Let’s not get too excited. Figuring 2 bikes per hotel conservatively at $3,000 per, that’s $32 million top line. I suspect the real impetus is that every Hilton Honors guest gets a free 90-day trial to the Peloton app.

The stock is up $0.24 as I type.