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☕️ Still bullish on these stonks, and hoping I won’t regret it! 🤦‍️

Mar 19, 2025

Howdy! 👋

The S&P 500 is rising ahead of the Fed’s next follies.

Could there be a fly in the ointment?

Yep.

Do NOT be surprised if big traders are pushing prices higher to draw in FOMO – Fear of Missing Out - ahead of the Fed’s next comments at 2pm today.

The playbook is simple and one I’ve seen dozens of times in recent years.

You have too, just perhaps didn’t realize it.

Here’s the skinny.

The Fed is widely expected to hold rates, but big traders (and the media narrative) will immediately shift to whether or not the Fed holds with the two rate cuts already expected this year.

Anything less or the slightest doubt whatsoever will immediately result in a rug pull – meaning they take prices down sharply to fleece the weak hands and weaker money.

The Fed could also throw a spanner in things if JPow goes off script with regard to his assessment of geopolitics, a trade war or tariff tantrums.

Stick to the playbook either way.

The Fed has already caused the next 5 financial crises and there’s nothing you can do about that. But you can absolutely focus on buying great companies at great prices with even greater profit potential.

Uncertainty always gives way to clarity!

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Still bullish on these stonks 🤦‍

I sat down for a wonderful conversation with the brilliant Kelly Evans and super sharp Eamon Javers yesterday on CNBC.

Call me crazy, but I am still bullish on all three stocks we discussed. (Watch)

Keith’s Investing Tip: Most investors think you make money only when stocks are going higher but that’s not true. The real money often gets made when you have the guts to buy in as they are going lower… assuming they’re great stocks in the first place. Change your tactics, not your conviction! 💯

Speaking of which…

2 – Investors Are Bailing in Record Numbers. Again.

I can’t think of a worse or more expensive mistake.

Actually, scratch that—I can, but this one’s right up there.

Individual investors, who should be buying the dip are now running for the hills as the S&P 500 enters a totally normal 10% correction. In just two weeks, U.S. equity retail outflows hit $4 billion according to Barclays. (Read)

Which means, they’re missing out on buying low, reinvesting, compounding, and about a dozen other ways to make real money.

Reminds me of that old joke… you can’t fix stupid.

The data is screaming… investors just aren’t listening.

Study after study after study shows that retail investors do exactly the right thing at precisely the wrong moment - meaning they buy when they should be selling and sell when they should be buying.

We've all been there at least once in our investing lifetime so this is nothing to be ashamed of. Mistakes are tuition, something you hear me say many times.

The data is brutal.

For example, DALBAR’s 30th Annual Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior (QAIB) found that while the S&P 500 averaged ~10% a year, the average investor barely scraped together ~4%—just a hair above inflation.

Why?

Because, again, they panic sell when they should be buying and FOMO-buy when they should be selling. It’s no wonder most never pull ahead and worse, fall behind.

Folks who think they’re being smart by timing the markets are just using fancy talk for losing money.

Don’t “buy” it—pun absolutely intended?

I understand.

But let’s run through a few recent examples.

During the 2008 crash, many investors sold at the bottom in panic but those who stayed invested and who continue to invest throughout – as I repeatedly encouraged - saw their portfolios recover and soar past pre-crisis levels.

A decade later, the S&P 500 had more than quadrupled from the lows, but many were still sitting in cash, waiting for “the right time” to buy back in.

During COVID and in March 2020, the S&P 500 dropped ~34% in just 33 days leading many panicked investors to hit the eject handle and sell because they feared a prolonged crash. By April 2020 the markets had begun to rebound and by August 2020 prices had fully recovered.

By the end of 2021 the S&P 500 was up 100% from March 2020 lows.

I could do this all day, but I don’t want your eyeballs to glaze over.

It’s one thing if you need the money – I get it – but to sell because you’re trying to outguess the unguessable is just not a brilliant move.

MyPOV: History shows very clearly that you’ve got to be in to win… if you want to win. If you don’t care, that’s fine too—just don’t fool yourself into thinking you’re playing chess when you’re really just pushing tiddlywinks across the table.

3 – All you need to know about Nvidia’s GTC

Nvidia’s GTC is well underway! (Read)

Cue the frantic over-analysis.

Armchair experts are now dissecting every pixel of Jensen Huang’s speech like it's the Rosetta Stone of AI investing. Some are even poring over spreadsheets, crunching ratios, and pretending they have an edge—when in reality, they’re just proving they don’t understand how financial markets actually work.

Not that I want to take anything away from ‘em because hey, opinions are like bellybuttons. Their misguided missives are, at the very least, entertaining.

My take is stupid simple.

Nvidia has an 80% market share, customers are beating a path to its doors and the company is selling every chip it makes.

But and just in case you are a glutton for punishment, here are a few highlights:

Introduction of the Blackwell Ultra GPU series - improved computing performance and increased memory capacity, catering to the demands of memory-intensive AI models.
Next generation GPU ‘Vera Rubin’ - set for release in the second half of 2026.
Major focus on "physical AI," enabling machines to interact with the physical world. This includes the unveiling of the GROOT N1 humanoid foundation model, an open-source initiative for advancing robotics.
NVIDIA, Disney Research, and Google DeepMind are jointly developing Newton, an open-source physics engine designed to simulate robotic movements in real-world settings.
Partnership with General Motors to collaborate on AI-powered next-generation vehicles, factories, and robots.

I also found it very intriguing that Huang noted that the amount of computational power we need is easily 100X the amount we thought we’d need at this time last year.

No doubt the clickbait crowd is going to latch on to that one and we’re going to get email carpet bombed with all sorts of miraculous power plays nobody's heard of but that’s beside the point.

The more direct path to profits here is to make the energy we already have more efficient when we need it, where we need it. Then invest in next generation energy. The regulatory process is going to be a you know what.

The OBA Family has got this covered and has for a long time. Plus, they’re enjoying some hefty dividends along the way as compensation for the risk they take as stock owners on the cusp of something even bigger.

Hopefully, you are too.

If not, I’d love to toss my hat in the ring – you know where to find me.

4 – Delaware, ruh-roh!

Could it be… Delaware’s governor finally waking up to reality? (Read)

Meta is now reportedly eyeing the exit door, hot on the heels of Elon Musk’s departure. (Translation: The money printer might stop brrrr-ing.)

Here’s the kicker.

Delaware rakes in over $1 billion a year—more than 20% of its tax revenue—from corporate filings. If the exodus continues, that’s going to leave one heck of a hole in the state’s budget.

So now, in a totally not panicked move – or at least that’s the official story - Gov. Matt Meyer is scrambling, holding emergency meetings with Meta execs and lawmakers to stop the bleeding.

And—wait for it—lawmakers are suddenly apparently considering a special legal change to keep companies from bailing.

Funny how fast the rulebook changes when tax revenue is on the line, huh?

It’s one of the cardinal rules of investing.

Money, like water, always flows to where it’s treated best.

5 – The next wave of manufacturing won’t involve factories

We’re on the verge of 3D printing dang near everything.

For years, I’ve been tracking this story—starting with medical printing, then creeping into heavier industries like aircraft parts, housing and more.

Now we’re staring down a future where supply chains, factories, and even entire industries get flipped on their heads. It’ll be adapt, adopt, or die.

The only thing standing between us and this revolution is our still-limited understanding of materials science. But that’s changing fast. (Read)

This latest development has my full attention—and I can’t wait to find an investable entry point.

Right now, the market’s littered with “3D printing” stocks like Stratasys (SSYS) and Nano Dimension (NNDM), but let’s be real—they’re just n+1 iterations.

The real zero-to-one breakthroughs – and the ones you’ll want to focus on as an investor - are far more likely to come from the big players with the capital, scale, and distribution power to reshape whatever industry it is that they already dominate.

More likely, now that I think about it, they’ll just buy the disruptors and call it a day.

Hmmm. 🤔