☕️ Scared of tariffs, think like this tequila maker

Howdy! 👋 

I’ve got 24 hours on the ground between trips, so I’ll be brief.

The markets are in a nasty mood ahead of tariffs which makes sense… and not because of the tariffs either. But because traders hate the uncertainty that comes with ‘em. 

And that’s the point you want to focus on. 

History shows very clearly that tariffs – like other taxes, policies and emotional inputs – come and go. But profit potential is a permanent fixture. 

I submit that the markets will be gone like a rocket when even a whiff of certainty returns.  

There’s $7.1T on the sidelines and the vast majority of people are not thinking about “what could go right.” 

Here’s my playbook.  

1 – Treasury yields haven’t changed as investors wait for tariffs 

Or so says CNBC. (Read) 

Not even close. 

Yields are flat because big-money traders haven’t figured out what kind of risk they’re staring down. Economic? Financial? Thematic? Political? 

Tariffs are just the excuse. 

The Treasury market isn’t just “big” — it’s a $26 trillion monster, nearly double the size of the entire U.S. stock market. 

That’s why global traders treat it like a bellwether.  

When yields move, they’re not just reacting to Fed policy — they’re pricing in fear, safety, and future cash flows. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: If the stock market is a casino, the bond market is the vault — and right now, the door’s stuck open. 

Trade idea: Watch $TLT or $IEF for breakdowns. Hedge with $TBT or $TMV if yields start to spike. The lull won’t last. We may even see green by the time you read this. 

2 – Tesla deliveries down, vision up – guess which one pays? 

Q1 deliveries were down 13% YoY. Cue the drama. (Read) 

Headlines scream. Bears dance. X melts. Furus lose it. 

Here’s the truth bomb. 

That’s lazy, surface level stuff. Anybody pushing that narrative is telegraphing their ignorance while also revealing how much scrolling and how little homework they’ve actually done. 

• Energy storage? Up 157% YoY with 10.4 GWh deployed. 

• New Model Y ramping? Tesla says it’s going “well” despite production changeovers in all four factories. 

• China sales? +157% month-over-month. 

• Robotics? Optimus is now capable of sorting objects and folding laundry autonomously — that’s not a car stat, that’s a future-of-labor stat. 

• X acquisition? Tesla is integrating its AI stack into X, deepening vertical control and data capture. 

• Rockets? Starlink is enabling Tesla’s global data vision — and Musk’s master plan isn’t bound by Earth. 
• Energy? Megapack deployments are accelerating, turning Tesla into a global utility in disguise. 

Delivery drops?  

They’re noise. Infrastructure, autonomy, and energy are the real plays. 

Tesla may be at or near generational lows.  

I suggest using the overreaction to add via staged entries. Long $TSLA with tight risk control, or pick up LEAPS while implied volatility’s elevated and the crowd’s focused on the wrong metric. 

$600 a share. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: People swear up down and sideways that they won’t miss the “next” XYZ but that’s exactly what they do particularly when they’re faced with a controversial stock that the media and many people hate.  

There’s nothing wrong with that, btw, just don’t grouse 10 years from now if Tesla has returned another 1,967.99% just like it has over the past decade. That’s enough to turn every $1,000 invested back then into $20,679.90 today. The SPY, by comparison, has turned in 222.89% and the same $1,000 would be worth $3,228.90. 

And if you can’t bring yourself to invest in Tesla because you can’t stand Musk? 

You’re not alone by any stretch of the imagination – and there’s nothing wrong with that whatsoever. Personally, I struggle with Meta but that’s just me. 

3 – Scared of tariffs? Think like a tequila maker 

Suerte Tequila isn’t flinching. 

While everyone else whines about tariffs, CEO Laurence Spiewak just pulled a power move: “We’ll eat the cost, not our customers.” (Read) 

Why? 

Because Suerte owns the whole chain — distillery, agave fields, and all — something almost nobody in their category does. 

That’s vertical integration at work: 

• Cuts out middlemen 

• Shields margins 

• Keeps pricing power intact 

Remember something we've talked about many times… the best companies control their supply chains, not complain about them. 

Which is why as an investor you want to look for other vertically integrated choices as a source of profits and tariff protection. It doesn’t matter what industry; in case you’re wondering especially as AI comes on the scene. 

At the risk of being entirely self-serving, the One Bar Ahead® Model portfolio is chock full of 'em and holding its own with considerably lower risk and higher profit potential than the S&P 500 against which it's benchmarked. Many pay rock solid dividends too, and that's always a great "add" for income-starved investors. 

Hopefully, you’ve got this covered in your investing, too. If not or you’d like a little help, I’ll be here. 

4 – The Fed Gets Smoked (Again) on Jobs 

Private companies added 155,000 jobs in March — crushing the 120,000 estimates. (Read) 

That’s nearly double February’s revised 84,000 and supports my long-standing contention that: 

a) The data is still more cooked than a Christmas goose 

b) The economy is stronger than the Fed’s tinker-toy models can calculate 

The labor market isn’t cracking. It’s grinding higher — like a caffeinated squirrel on a Peloton. 

Why it matters: 

This is a problem for Unka Powell & Co., who seem to be quietly praying for weakness so they can justify rate cuts — because, ya know, the whole “transitory inflation” thing worked out so well last time. 🤦‍️ 

Now what? 

J’Pow’s got cover to stall. 

He’ll likely blather on about “data dependency,” because this report lets him kick the can while markets twist in the wind. 

Don’t fight the Fed — just don’t bet they’ve got a clue, either. 💯 

Trade idea: Financials ($XLF) could grind higher. Duration-heavy tech? Watch your six — cheap $QQQ puts could make solid hedges here. 

5 – OpenAI Just Drew a Line in the Sand (and You Should, Too) 

OpenAI just made its first-ever investment in a cybersecurity startup — Adaptive Security, which uses AI to simulate deepfake cyberattacks. (Read) 

Why? Because AI-powered threats are here, now, and growing fast. 

Ten years ago, cybersecurity was niche. Today, it’s boardroom priority #1 — and about to become investor priority #1, too. 

There isn’t a CEO on the planet who can afford not to invest. 

Invest accordingly. 

AI is flashy, defense prints the money. 

My fave cyber security stock has returned 573.93% over the past 5 years while the S&P 500 has turned in 122.20% over the same time period.  

Hopefully, you’ve got a chunk too.  

Speaking of which, the April issue (of One Bar Ahead®) comes out shortly along with a new recommendation that could rewrite medical history. So, keep an eye on your email if you’re an OBAer! And if not, I’ll be here. 

Bottom Line 

Many aspiring investors and traders want to be right and spend inordinate amounts of time trying to make their case. 

That’s excellent but not exactly on point.  

The most successful money mavericks concentrate on being profitable, even when they’re wrong and even when stocks they’ve purchased are going against 'em.  

It’s a nuance, but one that can make a huge difference. 

As always, let’s MAKE it a great day. 

You got this – I promise!  

Keith 😀