Run for the hills? Not so fast…

Good morning!

Same story, different day.

Treasury yields jumped this morning on a stronger-than-expected jobs report, which, of course, is causing stocks to take it on the chin.

The temptation is to run for the hills—and I get why a lot of folks want to. But, as always, there’s another perspective.

We’ve seen this playbook before.

Here’s my playbook.

More likely the start of a new bull than another bear?

Investors who don’t study history are at a huge disadvantage. They make poor decisions because they lack perspective. Persistent strength is more often a sign that there’s a new bull market brewing than a sign that there’s another bear market at hand.

Bottoming is a process, not an on/off switch!

Invest accordingly! And, if you’d like some help along the way, I’m here. Upgrade to paid

Musk: This is the "most badass rig on the road"

Tesla just delivered its first all-electric big rig to Pepsi. Uncle Elon plans to build 50,000 of ‘em by 2024. (Read)

Naturally, the experts are “skeptical,” according to the mainstream media. 🤦‍♂️

Here’s the thing.

Tesla stock is up 8,517.61% over the past 10 years, as of yesterday. That’s enough to turn every $1,000 invested on December 4, 2012 into $86,175.86, according to DQYDJ.

You’d think the “experts” would have figured out a long time ago not to bet against Elon Musk. He has defied ‘em all repeatedly… Tesla, SpaceX, Starlink, AI, electric power, solar, and more. He will defy ‘em again.

I hope I’m smart enough to buy more!

Jobs report proves Powell wrong again

What’s happening. Payrolls and wages jumped 263,000 for the month while unemployment remained unchanged at 3.7%. Wages jumped 5.1% year-on-year.

Why Powell still doesn’t get it. This is what happens when an economy grows and the government can’t stop spending. Powell can raise rates until the cows come home and still not be able to fix this mess because he has a fiscal problem. He is as wrong about rates and jobs as he was about transitory inflation.

Inflation will rage even if Powell slows down rate hikes. It might back off a skosh, but the daunting reality is that it’s likely to remain high for years to come.

The world’s best companies are growing anyway, including many of the names we talk about frequently. Especially where dividends are concerned. Several are even “on sale.” Upgrade to paid

Blackstone REIT investors beware

We’ve talked for over a year about the threat rising rates pose to REIT investments. I won’t repeat all that today, in the interest of time.

The upshot is that rising rates negatively impact real estate values because it makes the cost of debt more expensive and can affect occupancy rates, which, in turn, lowers income.

Why this matters. Blackstone’s $69 billion unlisted REIT makes up roughly 17% of Blackstone’s earnings. Not surprisingly, the company’s stock dropped on news that it was curbing withdrawals. (Read)

The right REITs can make all the difference while the wrong ones… well, let’s just say there’s gonna be a generation of income investors who may be in for a very nasty surprise.

I haven't seen a bargain like this in years

The December issue of One Bar Ahead® comes out a few hours from now, and there’s still time to join our band of merry money mavericks, savvy investors, traders, and financial professionals reading along around the world.

In this month’s issue:

• A high-tech bargain, the likes of which I haven’t seen in years
• A brand-new indicator that can help you anticipate major market turning points ahead of time (and long before conventional technical indicators do)
• Model portfolio updates, the latest OBA 50 & Fund Folio
• 12 lessons on thankfulness from a successful OBAer

If you’ve got this covered, that’s awesome. My hat’s off to you—most people don’t!

If you’d like some help, I’d like to toss my hat in the ring. Join the One Bar Ahead® Family Now

Bottom Line

Winning is easy.

Learning how to do it consistently is the real challenge.

Let’s finish the week strong.

You got this—I promise!

Keith 😊