☕ Palantir just made Oracle interesting again

Good morning! 👋 

Fresh records, fresh highs, and fresh opportunities.  

I LOVE this business! 

45 years in global markets and there’s still something interesting every single day. 

Here’s my playbook.  

1 – You can’t guess the un-guessable so stop trying 

I made the comment Sunday evening that I would be very surprised if big money traders don’t come outta the gate storming to the downside at least once this week. (Watch) 

1 (day) down, 4 to go. 

Millions of investors are searching for clues about what Fed will do next and wondering if they should buy based on an earnings season they’re already trying to second-guess. 

Here’s an idea. 

You can’t guess the un-guessable so stop trying. 

What you CAN do though is focus on what you can control... like a) buying world class companies that are going to put up great numbers despite it all and b) controlling risk by using tactics that keep you in the game and on the hunt. 

Your portfolio will thank you. 

I hear from constantly from investors who wonder if now’s a “good time to buy” or whether they should “wait for a pullback.” Most have missed the boat or are suffering from having fallen prey to the “smartest people in the room” a special group of wizards who, honestly, have predicted 10 of the last 2 recessions.  

I get why they’re asking and why they think that’s a smart idea.  

But seriously??!!  

If that’s what you’re worried about at this stage of the game, you should go to Vegas and hunt down numbers on the roulette table. 

Great companies will produce great results over time – your job as an investor is to find ‘em.

If you’ve got this covered, excellent – most investors do not. If you’d like some help, I’m here. 

2 – Customers have finally had enough 

People are reportedly filming Chipotle workers in an effort to make sure they’re receiving appropriate portions of the menu items they’ve asked for. Some view it as a genius hack while others a greedy ploy. (Read) 

Diners pushed back at Wendy’s this spring because the CEO said the chain may begin using dynamic pricing – meaning that they’ll jack the amount of money you pay when demand is high and presumably lower it when it's not (I call BS on that one btw) 

And TikTok users have had a field day with Walmart for rolling out digital shelving labels that allow the company to manipulate prices instantly. 

It won’t be long before you have an extra donut in the morning and your health insurance premiums go up in the afternoon the way this is going. 🤦‍♂️ 

Investing Implication: Customers will fight back and companies that are not sensitive to that possibility will suffer tremendously. Nike is a great example which is why you don’t want to own it imho. Those that get it right – like Costco – will continue to rack up brand loyalty at any price and, of course, profits will reflect that.  

Source: Koyfin

MyPOV: Investors spend so much time trying to avoid risk but screw up anyway because they don’t see bigger picture issues like this one (which is why I’ve repeatedly recommended COST to the OBA Family and avoided Nike).  

3 – Streamers remind me of pharmacies 

Paramount’s Jeff Shell sees streaming like I do. (Read) Eventually there will be a one-stop shop where customers can find anything they want. 

And he notes, “if you’re not in that bundle, you’re in trouble” 

MyPOV: Streaming is an n+1 choice and just another way for companies to prioritize cash flow under the guise of a better viewer experience. Streaming companies, with one or two exceptions, have about as much staying power as pharmacies do. Invest accordingly or reap the whirlwind. 

4 – Ask yourself this if you’re excited about an ETH spot fund 

The ETF world is abuzz with anticipation that there’s a new spot-Ethereum fund on the horizon. (Read) 

Ask yourself this if you’re tempted to buy when it debuts. 

Why would an entire industry – Wall Street - suddenly pivot from “we hate this stuff” to “hey, let’s create a few funds” and market the crap out of it? 

Short answer – billions in fees. 

Institutional interest creates – as the Atlantic put it – a “new sheen of legitimacy.” 

The expression “lambs to slaughter” comes to mind. 

MyPOV: There is no doubt that digital money is our future. In fact, I would argue that we’re already there in many ways but - in the same breath because I know how Wall Street works - that funds like this are among the most dangerous ever created. If you’ve got the moxy to buy ‘em, good on ya. Just keep your eyes open and understand why they’re suddenly a thing in Wall Street’s eyes. 

5 – Palantir just made Oracle interesting again 

Palantir’s AIP is now officially an Oracle product. (Read) 

I might have to take another look... at Oracle. 

Palantir is a foregone conclusion and a $50 stock imho. 

Oracle is the only hyperscale provider that can deliver AI along with more than 100 cloud related services globally. Now that TikTok fears have fallen by the wayside... 

Hmmm. 

Bottom Line 

Many people worry about how far stocks can fall when the selling starts.  

Flip that around.  

The biggest bounces often come from quality stocks that get hit hardest.  

Your job is to make sure you know how to find 'em! 

As always, let’s MAKE it a great day – you got this! 

Keith 😊