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☕️ Oracle could be a sleeper 🤷🏻‍

Jun 12, 2025

Howdy! 👋

Yesterday morning I wrote to you that I expected another downside test before the session ended and, right on cue, that happened as the markets headed toward closing.

Today, traders have lost no time sweeping out any orders remaining in the system from folks betting on more downside because they got scared into doing something foolish… and, having accomplished that, are now taking both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq higher as I type while leaving the Dow in the red.

I think the Dow could also go “green” by the time you read this.

Where do markets go from here?

That depends on the headlines.

Anything that reintroduces FUD – fear, uncertainty and doubt – has the potential to be a downer while anything that inspires confidence can create FOMO if there’s a sense that worries like tariffs, rates and the economy can be relegated to the back seat so to speak.

MyPOV is that we’ll see range bound conditions for a bit with an upside bias lurking under the hood as Wall Street tries to hide that from the investing public.

Watch the US10YR yield for the “tell” – a poker term meaning behavioural or physical cues that give away their intentions.

Yields are down as I type to 4.377% which suggests that it’s only a matter of time before the big money gets on the gas again.

They can’t afford not to.

Investing in optimism is the purest path to profits over time.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Oracle could be a sleeper

Oracle beat both top- and bottom-line estimates for Q4. (Read)

Revenue came in at $15.9 billion, an 11% increase YoY.

Cloud services and support revenues jumped 14% YoY, reaching $11.7 billion.

Cloud infrastructure (IaaS) revenue surged 52% to $3.0 billion, while SaaS-based cloud applications revenue grew 12% to $3.7 billion.

The company is expecting an even better 2026, with CEO Safra Catz forecasting that total cloud revenue growth will accelerate from 24% in FY25 to over 40% in FY26, and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) growth alone is projected to top 70%.

Hooyah!

I think there’s a very good chance that cloud revenue could accelerate even faster than Catz suggests, though. There’s more than $1.5T flowing into AI and the advanced manufacturing needed to make it all work already.

Which means that Oracle could be a very interesting choice… a “sleeper” to paraphrase my grandfather who would often refer to under-recognized baseball players having the potential to significantly outperform expectations.

LEAPs calls, in particular.

Hmmm.🤔

2 – Another Boeing down

I travel a lot, which is why it always hits me hard when I hear about something like the Air India Boeing 787 en route to London Gatwick which crashed shortly after takeoff from Ahmedabad with 242 people aboard. (Read)

The cause remains unknown and as tends to be the case in situations like this, could take months to determine.

What catches my attention is that this is a) yet another Boeing down and b) the first involving the 787 Dreamliner, supposedly the company’s flagship state-of-the-art airplane.

Boeing reached a $1.1B deal just a few days ago to avoid prosecution over 737 Max crashes in Ethiopia and Indonesia that were both attributed to faulty flight control systems.

At the same time, there are reports that the latest investigation – begun May 2024 – includes Boeing disclosures that employees “skipped inspections” on some 787 Dreamliners and/or skipped or failed to fulfill various safety requirements.

Boeing whistleblower Ed Pierson has called for a criminal investigation because Boeing planes “are not safe.” If he’s right, that’s not the half of it.

Not surprisingly, Boeing stock fell over 7% in premarket trading as the incident reignites safety concerns just ahead of next week’s Paris Air Show.

If there were no crash and the stock fell ahead of the Paris Air Show, I’d be tempted to buy it because that kind of activity would otherwise suggest big money traders sandbagging as of yet publicly unknown orders or something else material that could lead to higher prices ahead.

In this case, though, clearly not.

MyPOV: I can imagine a return to 52-week lows of $128.88 without too much trouble if the investigation reveals even half of what the scuttlebutt suggests may be the case.

Putskies, short and avoid.

3 – Bessent on tariffs: you get the carrot or the stick

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent just hinted that the White House might extend the 90-day tariff pause for 18 of America’s “important trading partners”—provided they keep playing nice. (Read)

So what?

I get it… there’s been a lot of posturing and bluster from everyone involved.

What catches my attention and what I encourage you to pay attention to is that Bessent’s remarks before Congress mark the first time a Trump official cracked the door open for more time without a deal in hand.

That’s a big pivot from the previous “terms or else” tone.

But don’t confuse this with a broader thaw.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick made it crystal clear: China’s still in the penalty box, deal or no deal.

4 – Unka Jensen and I agree

The rest of this decade belongs to autonomous vehicles, robotics, and intelligent machines.

Speaking at the Viva Tech conference in Paris, Huang described this shift as “the decade of AV, robotics, autonomous machines.” (Read)

Not surprisingly, and as I have suggested for years, Nvidia is positioning itself as the engine behind it all. Like selling shovels during a gold rush.

I hope to heck you’re on board.

I say that because a lot of folks aren’t, and that’s a shame.

Nvidia has returned 742.68%, 1,429.89% and 27,387.87% over the past 3-, 5-, and 10-year periods versus 54.38%, 88.78% and 186.07% from the S&P 500 respectively.

They swear up down and sideways that they won’t miss the next whatever, only to do just that.

Many buy ETFs and funds with hundreds of stocks including Nvidia yet wonder why they’re getting left behind.

Answer… buying ETFs and funds is like buying cable TV in that you’ve got to buy 200 channels to get the 1 or 2 you actually want to watch. The diversification that you think will help protect you is arguably and very likely holding you back.

The world’s best investors take a very different approach.

Like us, they concentrate on stocks they know will be there when they need ‘em because — again, like us — they play to win, a very different proposition – which is why I encourage you to take a page from their playbook.

Before you blindly rush out to buy Nvidia at this point, know this.

History suggests there are 10-15 “Nvidias” out there right now in various stages of maturity, including one that’s less than 0.3% of Nvidia’s cap, I’ve suggested to the OBA Family and another I’m tracking that’s less than 1/10th the revenue but haven’t yet pulled the trigger on.

If you have that covered already, GREAT!

If not, you may enjoy One Bar Ahead®.

5 – Get on board or get stuck at the gate

Airlines are notoriously poor investments for a variety of reasons. So, too, are airline makers including very specifically Boeing given that another of its aircraft has gone down. (Read)

But schtuff that flies?

Now we're talking.

US President Donald Trump just signed three executive orders that could turn the U.S. aviation game upside down. (Read)

Music to my investing ears.

I see three terrestrial components:

Drones: Beyond visual line-of-sight operations approved = massive potential for logistics heavyweights like FedEx, AMZN, and UPS. I think there's another name that will master this faster and more profitably, and it's not a coincidence that the OBA Family is already ahead on this count.

Flying Cars: A national eVTOL pilot program is officially underway. Think Joby, Archer Aviation, and a Jetsons-like future.

Supersonic Flight: Back on the radar. Keep your eye on Boom Supersonic (private) and RTX for defense-aviation crossover.

Too many investors focus only on the cool factor—flying cars, drones, supersonic travel—without understanding the real enabler: computational horsepower.

Coordinating fleets of autonomous aircraft, navigating urban air corridors, and ensuring millisecond safety decisions takes massive real-time data processing and AI-driven systems.

AI is the secret sauce that will turn futuristic visions like this into profitable realities a lot sooner than most think.

Without it, the sky isn’t the limit—it’s the bottleneck. The way I see it, you can get on board or get stuck at the gate.

Meanwhile, I’m Jonesing for a Jetson.