Nvidia sticks it to naysayers yet again!
Nov 22, 2023Good morning! 👋
The markets look set for a run higher on the back of a) Nvidia’s monster earnings report, and b) Treasury yields hitting a two-month low.
I hope you’re on board because you run the very real risk of getting trounced if you aren’t.
Not that this is a surprise.
We’ve been talking about the possibility of a violent rally into the tail-end of the year for some time now. Moreover, if you’ve watched any of my recent TV appearances, you also know that I’ve been discussing this for months on air. (Watch)
MyPOV: Investors may think they’re playing it smart by going to the sidelines in an attempt to avoid a potential downturn—and I get why they would feel that way—but missing opportunity is the more expensive proposition.
To a point I’ve made as forcefully as I can and at the risk of sounding like a broken record… that same 4–5% that feels so good now won’t when stocks—those we talk about frequently—run up another 100% or more over time and you’ve missed ‘em.
Case in point, the naysayers were laughing in my face when I said get on board with both NVDA and Palantir, which have now tacked on 239.70% and 216.28% YTD, respectively. A lot of those same folks are crying into their beer now, but that’s a story for another time.
This is a tough business, and I’m not telling you this to brag. That’s simply not my style; I could just as easily have been wrong.
The point I want to make is that you need to be “in to win” or you won’t… win.
Here’s my playbook.
OpenAI: The circus continues
Now it appears that Sam Altman will return to OpenAI following intense pressure from investors and employees alike. (Read)
You’d think Microsoft CEO Nadella would be annoyed, but in fact, he thinks this is a great idea.
And so do I.
The move strengthens Microsoft and OpenAI at the same time. It also reinforces my belief that Microsoft will eventually buy OpenAI lock, stock, and barrel.
Alternatively, I can also see—as a result of this move—Microsoft maintaining OpenAI at arm’s length as a way of keeping rabid antitrust regulators at bay, in much the same manner Intel did with AMD.
MSFT may fall a bit on the news, but that’s chump change.
10-year Treasury yields < 4.4%
The US 10-year yield has dropped under 4.4% as I type, and this gives highly leveraged traders additional incentive to borrow money as a way of juicing their profits.
Unfortunately, there is no way to tell whether this is for the day, the month, or part of a run into 2024. I suspect a little of all three. (Read)
No doubt these same traders will make a beeline for Big Tech where liquidity and volatility are highest.
I hope I own enough shares.
Nvidia revenue +3X
Nvidia reported blockbuster results yesterday, beating analyst expectations for both revenue and income—a “double” in KeithSpeak. (Read)
If I had a dollar for every naysayer or backseat quarterback who told me this wouldn’t happen or couldn’t, I’d be parking my yacht next to Jeff Bezos’.
Naturally, the doom-and-gloom crowd is already out this morning cautioning that chip sales will decline in January as US export restrictions take hold.
No doubt that could happen, but…
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These are the same analysts who have repeatedly gotten the story wrong for a while now; and,
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Nvidia itself has already said that the decline will be more than offset by strong growth in other regions.
My money is on NVDA.
Binance agrees to $4.3B in penalties and forfeitures
Yowzers.
This is one of the largest penalties the DOJ has ever obtained, and it follows closely on the heels of SBF’s fraud conviction. Moreover, Binance founder and CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao agreed he and the company failed to maintain an effective anti-money-laundering program while also failing to register as a money transmitting business. (Read)
Contrary to what a lot of folks are thinking, the real issue here is not digital currency because that’s inevitable.
The problem is that cryptocurrencies and their operators must find a path to legitimacy that includes appropriate regulatory controls and a path away from facilitating illegal drugs, weapon transactions, sexual abuse, and terrorism.
Meanwhile, the safety-first way to play digital currencies continues to be investing in well-established companies that are rapidly developing blockchain-like tech and the related infrastructure needed to work with existing international clearing systems and controls. (Upgrade to Paid)
Dios mio—Argentina wants to adapt the USD
Right-wing populist Javier Milei won Argentina’s presidential run-off. Now, he wants to adopt the US dollar while ditching the peso as a way to squash out-of-control inflation and bail out the country’s economy. (Read)
Sounds crazy, right?
Not so.
Argentina would be joining Panama, El Salvador, and Ecuador, which already use the dollar.
My concern is that Argentina does not have enough pesos to make the transition. Which, if I am correct, means the only way the country could transition to the US dollar is to convert dramatically inflated pesos to dollars at an extraordinary, depreciated exchange rate that would, in turn, probably cause a significant recession or even a complete breakdown of Argentina’s economy.
Oli production and other regional industries could take a hit.
Hmmm.
Bottom Line
The uncomfortable reality of investing is that we all pretty much stink when we start. Then, improve over time.
The sooner you get mistakes outta the way, the sooner you can hit your stride.
Simple as that.
As always, let’s MAKE it a great day.
Keith 😊
PS: We’ll be taking a few days off to spend time with our families here in the United States where we’ll be celebrating Thanksgiving tomorrow. We will be back Monday, presumably with new incentive to go to the gym and work off all the yummies.
