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☕️ Nvidia on deck and a bitcoin blitz?

May 28, 2025

Howdy 👋

The markets are in a holding pattern with all eyes on Nvidia after the bell.

Right on schedule.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – All eyes on Nvidia

I’m expecting 50-60% growth top line and right about 20% bottom line but, as I noted yesterday, the numbers will be nowhere as important as the narrative. (Watch) (And see #1).

Wall Street is going to fall all over any explanation related to tariffs but what you want to watch is what I call the footnote language… meaning the stuff buried in management’s remarks because that’s where you’re going to see the forward-looking stuff.

Meanwhile, I’ve suggested several straddles recently, an options bet that allows you to play both side of a big move.

Now I’m getting asked if I see that strategy working again this time around.

Nope, the volatility isn’t there.

Prices have been basically flat for the past 5 days which suggests that nobody is willing to stick his or her neck out so there’s no definable edge I can identify.

Sometimes that happens… and when it does, you simply move on to the next opportunity.

2 – US tech holding their ground, global tech not so much

This catches my attention.

There’s a misconception that all stocks and markets are subject to the same risks.

Not true.

For example, headlines today read that ASML has lost over $130 billion in market value in under a year. (Read)

And just like that, the chip sector got dragged back into the tariff and China crossfire.

Shares of the Dutch lithography giant have dropped from over €1,000 last July to under €680 this week — a brutal comedown that wiped nearly a third off its valuation. Some €120 or roughly $130 in all.

The narrative, of course, is simple: U.S. export restrictions to China, political noise around tariffs, and rising questions about AI demand have spooked the market.

ASML can’t sell its most advanced EUV machines to China — and its CEO says that slice of business will only shrink further in 2025.

Here’s the thing.

This isn’t a new story… the geopolitical risk was always there. And while the headlines scream “opportunity,” the reality is more complicated.

ASML may have a monopoly on high-end chip tools, but it’s still a European firm exposed to the whims of global policy, restrictive EU regs, and a customer base that includes the very buyers now facing uncertainty.

Wall Street’s still largely bullish, of course. Analysts are calling for ~17% upside, and names like Wells Fargo say management remains confident in 2025–26 growth.

I’m not sure it makes sense to take the bait.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Painting every stock with the same brush in any industry is a bad move that tends to cost unsuspecting investors a lot of money over time. There is always a “best” to buy and a “rest” to ignore.

3 – Can Filosa get the job done?

Stellantis just handed the keys to North America COO Antonio Filosa, who’ll step in as CEO on 23 June following Carlos Tavares’ unexpected December exit. (Read)

Filosa inherits a dashboard full of warning lights: profits are down, U.S. sales are sputtering, and looming trade tariffs could throw a wrench into what’s already a messy ride.

Things were so bad that the company pulled its 2025 guidance altogether after Q1 net revenue fell 14%, and the stock has lost nearly 27% year-to-date.

Not exactly the handoff you dream of, or at least I would.

Should you buy it?

I like the fact that Filosa is a 25-year industry vet and the former Jeep CEO because it suggests he gets what’s happening. He’s also designated the US markets as a priority.

That said, I’ll likely pass given that Stellantis reported a 70% collapse in net profit and a 17% revenue drop in 2024… because it strikes me as less of a soft landing and more of a structural failure.

Now and to be fair, we are talking about a $10 stock so buying a few speculative shares and putting them on a shelf for the next decade could be an interesting gambit especially if you can bag a FreeTrade or two along the way… a favourite OBA Investing Tactic that helps maximize profit potential while also minimizing risk.

Hmmm.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Turnarounds are always tempting, but buying junk hoping for genius is a tough way to grow wealth.

4 – Could this put Toyota back on the map?

Toyota could have completely dominated the hybrid EV industry had it widely dispersed Prius hybrid technology through its entire lineup back in the day.

Instead, the company is playing catch up having been resoundingly thrashed by global competitors.

Now, it might get a second chance. (Read)

I wonder.

Meanwhile, I’m very happy to hold two leading auto names because there’s no second chances needed given that both are in raw growth mode. Hopefully you’ve got some exposure, too. If not and that’d be helpful, you know where to find me.

5 – I know, “let’s buy crypto” 🤦‍️

GameStop stock jumped again premarket — not because it fixed operations, found growth, or even stopped bleeding cash.

Nope.

It rallied sharply because news broke that the company just dropped $512 million into Bitcoin. (Read)

Then cratered, leaving anybody who bought in high and dry again and the shorts with scorch marks that’d do a fireworks engineer proud.

You’d think people would learn, but then again….

Sigh.

When your core business is fading faster than midnight mall traffic, buying crypto is apparently the strategy. Or at least the headline.

The way I see it, GameStop now joins the MicroStrategy school of corporate hope: slap some BTC on the balance sheet and pray it papers over the fact you’re still selling pre-owned Xbox games next to clearance-priced hoodies.

It’s theatre.

If you want crypto exposure, buy crypto – not a flailing retailer using it as a smokescreen.

Speaking of which, a quick glance at my screens… and I see that BTC is down a skosh today but that the so-called “whales” continue to buy despite prices remaining near all-time highs.

My experience is that’s a warning sign that the game is afoot because large volume traders can easily shape low-timeframe performance, a fancy way of saying they will manipulate the beans outta price.

And what might their goal be?

My guess is something in the low $91-$92,000 per coin range which is – not coincidentally - just below the $94,000 mark and the 21-week moving average.

Trade Idea: BTC Putskies or LowBall Orders in the $90k range.