☕️ Nvidia, now what?

Howdy! 👋

The S&P 500 snapped a multi-day losing streak by the skin of its teeth yesterday but it’s too early to tell if that’ll carry the day today given all the cross currents. I think it could but, frankly, that’s a crapshoot.

Loads of folks will drive themselves bananas trying to guess what happens next.

I’d rather stick to facts and encourage you to do the same thing.

History is very clear.

Not investing is worse than being invested in markets that stink.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Nvidia rocked it, now what?

I said Monday on Varney & Co that I expected Nvidia to rock earnings (Watch) and again on Making Money with Charles Payne yesterday. (Watch)

You know the drill.

The company did, in fact, “beat and repeat” - meaning that it crushed earnings (+78% quarterly revenue increase) and produced yet another strong forecast.

Predictably, there are those trying to make the argument that future margins are a “little concerning” while others are backseat quarterbacking a totally fabricated narrative that AI demand is peaking.

CEO Jensen Huang, aka Chipus Maximus, didn’t get the memo.

He believes Nvidia will need to continue to scale because chip demand is high and accelerating. He also mentioned several new, even more powerful chips that will be unveiled at the company’s GTC conference on March 17^th.

Following up: I offered several potential ways for investors and traders to play Nvidia in yesterday’s 5 with Fitz. (See #1) I hope you took action on at least one of ‘em, particularly the straddle which could turn in some nice profits by the end of today’s session if prices continue to drop as is happening while I type.

2 – Amazon’s strategic plan seems to be “What’s Apple/Google doing?”

It’s sad, at least to me anyway.

Once upon a time, Amazon was the undisputed king of e-commerce, cloud dominance, and, let’s be honest, making sure we never had to put on pants to go shopping again. Like many, I loved the stock.

Now?

It’s been relegated to “me too” status, desperately playing catch-up in a game it used to own. And I won’t touch it.

The latest head-scratcher.

A grandiose plan to roll out Alexa+, a supposedly “revamped” version of its digital assistant powered by generative AI. Because you know… the world is clearly missing another chatbot pretending to be useful. 🤦‍♂️

I can hardly wait.

Instead of just ignoring my commands, Alexa+ will now generate whole paragraphs of excuses about why my smart lights won’t turn on. Instead of mishearing my playlist requests, it’ll confidently explain why it thought I wanted a Sesame Street marathon while providing helpful alerts that are anything but.

Best of all, it’ll use cutting-edge AI to tell me “I don’t know that one” in new and exciting ways!

Amazon’s once-feared innovation engine has apparently been replaced with a whiteboard full of ideas that say, “What’s Apple/Google/Microsoft doing? - Let’s do that… but worse.”

I’ll continue to avoid the stock, preferring instead to invest in companies making real progress.

Like – oh, I dunno - Apple which has returned 237.91% over the past 5 years, nearly doubling Amazon’s 121.02% over the same time frame. And to be fair, a darn sight better than the S&P 500 which notched up 91.12%.

3 – WBS pulls a rabbit outta the hat

I love an underdog, especially when it surprises me with something I didn’t think possible.

That’s the case with Warner Bros Discovery which announced that the company has added 64 million global streaming subscribers in Q4. According to the company means 116.9M subscribers. (Read) 

Shares are up as I type.

Would I buy it?

Not likely because even that kind of growth is going to be limited by a) the number of eyeballs it can acquire and b) the number of hours in a day.

Streaming is increasingly commoditized which means that companies doing it have a finite upside as newer technologies and competing ecosystems emerge.

MyPOV: I am not interested in playing the game just for the heck of it. I am “in to win” which means that I’ve got to focus on companies that are capable of winning for a long time to come. It’s not perfect, but it works for me and for many in the OBA Family.

4 – More proof “buy the best, ignore the rest” works

I’ve made no bones about Costco as being a prime example when it comes to my investment philosophy which can be summed up in just 6 words, “buy the best, ignore the rest.”

Now, at a time when most are worried about economic failure and going out of business, Costco is opening 9 new warehouse stores this year, 6 of which are in the US and will open their doors in weeks. (Read)

Shares have returned 108.05% over the past 3 years versus the SPX which has logged 35.44%.

That’s more than 3 to 1!

Meanwhile Target and Kohl’s – both of which are paraded endlessly in the mainstream media every time “retail” comes up - have lost -31.93% and -73.71% over the same time frame respectively.

Any questions?

Keith’s Investing Tip: You can invest like everybody else who’s playing not to lose, or you can make a simple decision that you’re tired of table scraps and play to win. If you have this covered and you know what I’m talking about, GREAT. If you’d like some help, I’ll be here if you need me and honoured to toss my hat in the ring. 

5 – RIP Mr. and Mrs. Gene Hackman

I was shocked—and truly saddened—to learn that Hollywood legend Gene Hackman and his wife, musician Betsy Arakawa, were found dead in their Santa Fe home. (Read)

Like many, I admired Hackman’s work on screen.

The man had a presence—gritty, commanding, and authentic in a way that Hollywood just doesn’t produce anymore. From The French Connection to Unforgiven, he never just played a role—he owned it.

But beyond the silver screen, what I respected most was how he chose to live his life once the cameras stopped rolling. No thirst for the limelight. No endless parade of PR stunts.

Just a man who did the work, left an incredible legacy, and quietly enjoyed the life he built.

That kind of quiet dignity is rare these days, especially in an era where many celebrities seem to think their opinions matter more than their work. Hackman, by contrast, let his career speak for itself—and what a statement it made.

Rest in peace, Sir. And thank you.

Bottom Line

Many people swear up, down and sideways that they’ll take action when there’s a selloff or a correction only to chicken out when the time comes. That’s normal… and totally fixable.

Remember.

The strong feed when the meek retreat.

BE STRONG.

As always, let’s MAKE it a great day. 💯

You got this – I promise!

Keith 😀