☕️ Now is NOT the time to run for the hills - Palantir, Nvidia etc
Mar 04, 2025Howdy! 👋
Let’s just get this outta the way…
Now is NOT the time to run for the hills.
In fact, history suggests doing so could be one of the single most expensive mistakes you make.
Don’t take my word for it, though.
- Buffett says the time to be greedy is when others are fearful.
- Templeton advised buying at the point of maximum pessimism.
- Lord Rothschild famously said, "Buy when there’s blood in the streets."
- To which I add, the markets are the only store on earth where customers fear a sale.
If you’re a trader, fine… that’s one thing and you should be in fat city from all the volatility lately. But if you’re an investor, it’s an entirely different story.
The markets have a very defined upside bias over time, and you can see that quite clearly – so it makes sense to play to that by investing in optimism rather than cowering in fear.
There are only three things you’ve got to get right:
- Buy the best, ignore the rest.
- Make sure you have enough of the right stocks aka that you’re “playing to win” not “not to lose”.
- Use the right tactics to control risk as part of the buying process, not as an afterthought, which is how most investors do it (if they think about risk management at all).
Here’s my playbook.
1 – Tariffs: who’s going to blink first
US President Donald Trump’s tariffs have gone into effect and as widely expected there’s plenty of retaliatory action already in play from Mexico, China and Canada. (Read)
That’s where most people’s attention span falters – they’re worried about what this means for their wallets because they fear loss, more expensive prices, etc.
I get it - I am not particularly pleased either but that’s moot.
As an investor, your job – and mine – should be to focus on those companies that can succeed anyway.
The OBA Family, of course, has this covered because we’ve worked diligently to assemble a fortress like portfolio of world-class companies aligned with where our world is going rather than where it’s been.
Hopefully, you’re doing something similar with your money.
If not, I urge you to get after it.
Tariffs are not about which companies are going to get hurt most immediately but which countries will blink first and how that plays out when the money comes roaring back as history suggests it inevitably will.
Keith’s Investing Tip: Most investors fail because they lack the long-term framework and thinking needed to get ‘em past short-term chaos like, oh, I dunno… tariffs. 🤦️ The sooner you can make the mental shift, the sooner your portfolio can thank you.
2 - Missing the Target
Target reported Q4 earnings. (Read)
- Earnings per share: $2.41 vs. $2.26 expected
- Revenue: $30.92 billion vs. $30.82 billion expected
- Sales dropped to $30.92 billion, down about 3% YoY
Target said it expects “to see meaningful year-over-year profit pressure in its first quarter relative to the remainder of the year” as it contends with “ongoing consumer uncertainty,” soft sales in February and concerns around tariffs.
Yep, the dog ate their homework.
I would have been more impressed if I’d heard management saying this is how we’re going to deal with those things. But that’s just me.
Should you buy Target?
I get asked that a lot as you can imagine.
My take is that Target is not even a contender in the scheme of things having returned 105.60% over the past decade versus my fave, Costco, which has positively shellacked Target over the same time frame with 747.56%. A 7 to 1 advantage and then some.
Btw, continue to avoid Target, unless you’re comfortable with mediocre at best.
3 - TSMC’s $100 billion power play
Taiwan Semiconductor is tossing down a cool $100B to build new chip manufacturing facilities in the U.S. (Read)
This isn’t just a big deal, it’s ginormous!
NVDA depends on TSMCs foundries for their silicon, and this is a major supply chain upgrade.
More production, faster.
Fewer bottlenecks.
Away from Beijing.
On a related note, I think TSMC’s decision to build rather than buy (Intel’s fabs) is very telling about just how caught up Intel is in its own legend.
Trade idea: Three years ago I said buy Nvidia and short or avoid Intel which I viewed as all but dead money at the time. Since then, Nvidia has returned 378.59% even after all the selling while Intel has lost 50.76%.
The former strikes me as still being an exceptional bet while the latter is on borrowed time.
If this kind of thinking is helpful or interesting, you may enjoy One Bar Ahead®. People tell me it’s helped ‘em up their game while building the kind of confidence needed to navigate today’s complicated markets and more.
4 – Palantir in France – Chanmé!
Palantir just locked in a major partnership with Société Générale, one of France’s biggest multinational investment banks. (Read)
Translation… yet another massive institution just handed Palantir the keys to its most sensitive data operations, this time for advanced anti-financial crime solutions.
Global banking security? Upgraded.
Data integrity? Locked down.
Profit potential? Check.
I hope you’re paying attention.
Stocks like Palantir come along once in a blue moon, a point I have made many times over.
5 – Walgreen’s white knight, or just delaying the inevitable?
Sycamore Partners, a private equity firm, is reportedly nearing a deal to acquire Walgreens Boots Alliance, potentially taking the company private and splitting Walgreens into three distinct businesses. (Read)
Good.
Might just be the Hail Mary they need.
I’ve repeatedly warned you away from hidden ‘portfolio killers’ – meaning stocks that will clobber your portfolio even as investors cling to the hope that they won’t.
Walgreens is exhibit A; shares are down ~70% over the past 5 years.
Intel, Nike and Boeing are the same story, different logos.
Keith’s Investing Tip: What you don’t buy is often just as important as what you do.
Bottom Line
Anybody can pick stocks.
Knowing how the game is played is what gives you the edge.
Learn, because that’s how you get ahead and stay there!
As always, let’s MAKE it a great day.
You got this – I promise!
Keith 😀
