MyPOV: Why you STILL probably don’t have enough Apple

Good morning!
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A quick reminder, volatility is an opportunity!

Here’s my playbook.

Fed to raise rates (and hold ‘em)

There’s a lot of discussion about where the Fed stands, whether it’ll “pause” or even get more aggressive.

The markets don’t care. The 2-year Treasury yield has reached a new 15-year high of 3.977% - a level not seen since 2007. The Fed must take draconian steps in the months ahead if it wants to maintain any sort of credibility.

Trade Idea – short bonds short term, puts and ETFs – depending on how you play the situation, they could all be triple digit winners as hard as that is to imagine.

And, at the risk of sounding like a broken record, HEDGE!!!

If you don’t know how, I prepared a quick read … Your 5 Minute Guide to Hedging. It’s included in every paid One Bar Ahead™ subscription. You can also order it separately if you’re not a member. Order now

Ford’s warning
 

Ford reports that it expects supplier costs to be $1B more than planned in Q3. The supply problems will impact 40-45,000 vehicles but particularly trucks and SUVs. (Read) The company reaffirmed guidance, but I have my doubts.

Might be time to switch to a stronger horse – meaning another stock.

Thought bubble: US manufacturers of just about everything are hurting and with good reason. The supply chain is an intergalactic trainwreck made worse by clueless fiscal and financial policies. Watch for a new wave of offshoring and capital flight – could be Africa’s moment. Might also be great for Dubai, specifically.

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Higher inflation could push you into a higher tax bracket

This will go over like a rock in the punchbowl. The Tax Foundation reports that 15 states have failed to account for inflation when drawing the brackets for wages and income. Another 18 states do not index personal exception tax to inflation. (Read)

Translation … inflation could push you into a higher tax bracket even though your personal purchasing power has been eviscerated.

Wouldn’t wanna be Jack Dorsey for all the tea in China right now

Both Twitter and Musk’s legal teams are deposing Twitter’s founder and erstwhile former CEO, Jack Dorsey. (Read)

I’d love to trade the stock but it’s too hot to touch given the unpredictability of our legal system. The battle between Musk who wants out and Twitter who wants the deal is set to go to trial on October 17th.

Why this matters anyway: The Twitter/Musk battle potentially sets court precedent about publishing, the role of policing content, responsibility for bots/spamming and more. I think it’s also going to call into question the hopeless BS that social media companies have pushed for a decade (which IMHO is long overdue).

Trade Idea – Meta is most at risk. Short/avoid or buy puts. I continue to believe it goes sub-$100, particularly if El Zucko remains in charge.

Oh darn; Apple could make even more money!

Apple will raise prices for apps and in-app purchases on its App Store starting next month in all of the euro zone and many countries in South America and Asia. (Read)

Why this matters: Apple services businesses – including the App Store – now generate around $20B a quarter.

Most investors could double shares and still not have enough.

Bottom Line

5 most dangerous words in trading ... "The markets should be doing _____"

Reverse that and ask yourself what YOU should be doing if it is!

Let's make it another great day.

Keith