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☕ Musk wants more control - so did Jobs!

Jan 16, 2024

Howdy! 👋

And just like that, the tide is going out.

Makes sense.

Think about it.

There was plenty of stuff in the headlines to scare nervous money outta the game yesterday while the markets were closed … the ECB is rumored not to be cutting rates this year, shipping attacks in the Red Sea, Apple discounting in China and more.

Wall Street’s big traders are only too happy to play along, especially since there are no big, needle-moving earnings on deck this week. All those orders are simply getting cleaned out of the system this morning.

Do NOT let this knock you off course.

The reason most investors fail or get scared out of the markets on days like today is because they lack the long-term framework needed to see past short-term shenanigans. So they make impulsive, stupid decisions rather than logical choices. We’ve all been there, including me.

Thankfully, mistakes are tuition.

Repeat after me.

Not one tick of what’s happening interferes with the ownership case for great stocks longer term.

Not…one…tick!

**A tick, btw, is a measure of the minimum up or down movement in the price of any security. 😊

Here’s my playbook.

1 – A retest of 4680?

I’ve spent years developing predictive non-linear analytics that help me see where the market is going with a high degree of accuracy as opposed to where it’s been using traditional technical analysis like most of what everybody else uses. (Watch)

This past Sunday I sent the following chart to my consulting clients noting that a retest of 4680 could be in the cards. And, if that fails, 4600.

Three things.

Times like this can be a great opportunity to trade around core positions using any number of strategies to stay in the game and on the hunt.
If you are constantly harvesting profits and reinvesting as I encourage, you are never caught without cash when there’s a pullback which means you can be at the table instead of on the menu; and,
Get your buy list ready.

A few well-placed LowBall Orders, Selling Cash Secured Puts or even purely bearish spreads could all work nicely depending on what you want to accomplish.

Before you ask… NO, I am not saying that the market will go to those levels. They could which is why we constantly talk about the difference between possibilities and probabilities as part of the investing process in our paid research, One Bar Ahead®.

MyPOV: Most investors misunderstand the statistical nature of the markets which is why they can’t reconcile price action in the name of profit potential. I actually think the markets could be green by the time you read this so there is that.

2 –Musk wants more control –> Jobs did the same thing

Elon Musk wants 25% of the voting control over Tesla, up from the 13% or so he has now. (Read)

I can’t blame him.

Musk intends to build Tesla into a worldwide leader in AI, robotics, and all things electric; and,
You can’t build a camel by committee.

The situation reminds me of Jobs and NeXT when he returned to Apple in 1997 at a time when the company (Apple) was struggling to avoid bankruptcy.

Let that sink in.

Apple has returned 27,009.94% since then versus SPY which tacked on 430.13% over the same period according to Finmasters.

So yes, I will buy another Musk company if I get the chance.

No question.

Meanwhile, wait and see.

3 – Big government = small wallet

It’s a pattern we’ve seen again and again.

Seattle’s City Council App-Based Worker Minimum Payment Ordinance has gone into effect and requires minimum payments for workers based on the time worked and miles travelled for each offer which, in this case, are $0.44 minimum per minute and $0.74 per mile or a minimum per offer of $5. (Read)

Short or avoid - UBER/LYFT - the obvious plays here because I think it won’t be long before this catches on in other municipalities. Same with grocery delivery services like Instacart, which has immediately made changes by doing away with Heavy Peak Pay for its workers due to the law.

Long any enterprising 12-year-old with a bike basket.

4 – What sonic boom?

Lockheed Martin and NASA released pictures of the new X-59 which is ostensibly a research platform for quiet supersonic travel over land and densely populated areas. Apparently, it’ll produce a boom that’s being described as more like a car door shutting than the window-shattering version we’re all familiar with. (Read)

In my best TV announcer voice… wait, there’s undoubtedly more.

LMT is one of the primary defense contractors working on hypersonic defense technologies. It stands to reason that if the company is willing to release the X-59 that it’s probably already working on far faster, far quieter tech that’s still a closely guarded secret.

Not for nothing… the F-117 stealth fighter flew in 1983 but was not publicly acknowledged until 1990 at which point it had been operational for at least 7 years but more likely over a decade… before the public knew about it.

Defense stocks are a no brainer.

LMT has returned 2.14% YTD versus the SPY which has lost 0.20% over the same time frame so it would seem that the markets agree… for now.

We’ll see.

5 – À votre santé Pernod

This is a trend for which the time has come.

GenZers are hot for non-alcoholic drinks and it’s powering a massive boom in non-alcoholic “taste-alikes.” (Read)

I’m a fan, albeit for different reasons.

I love my martinis and other cocktails but can’t stand the impact it has on my athletic performance over time or my mental acuity, particularly when I’m working long hours during earnings season, speaking at conferences around the world etc.

I believe we’re going to see an entirely new category of drinks emerge with companies like Diageo, Constellation and more getting in on the action.

I’ve got my eye on another beverage house though.

Pernod Ricard.