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Mar 18, 2025

Howdy! 👋

The markets are evidently on the way down again – red – as I type.

Which is a) hardly surprising given the uncertainty associated with tariffs and b) absolutely consistent with the massive rise in computerization that we talk about frequently.

What most investors fail to understand about today’s market conditions is that all of the usual up and down is still there. It’s just compressed by an order of magnitude – meaning that trading happens much faster and all of the uncertainty that used to take weeks to play into pricing now happens in just days or sometimes even hours.

Fortunately, there IS a simple, easy and very profitable solution. Plus, you’ll sleep better too – or at least I hope that’s the case.

When in doubt, zoom out!

Here’s my playbook.

1 – $32B… Does Google Know Something About Cybersecurity That You Don’t?

Google’s parent company, Alphabet, is snapping up cybersecurity startup Wiz for $32 billion, marking its largest-ever acquisition. (Read)

A few key takeaways:

Cybersecurity is massive—and only getting bigger.
Cybercrime could be a $24 TRILLION problem by 2027.
AI-driven cyberattacks are increasing in frequency and sophistication, with an estimated 20,000 attacks a day or roughly one every 39 seconds according to GetAstra.
Data breaches cost companies an average of $4.45 million per incident, according to IBM. Yet, most go unreported due to reputational damage, legal liabilities, and fear of regulatory scrutiny.
Government and corporate cybersecurity spending is surging.

If you’re not investing in cybersecurity, I’d urge a serious rethink.

Many investors could double the amount they’ve got at work and still not have enough.

My favorite choice and a long time OBA Fave has returned 15.10% over the past 12 months and is flirting with new all-time highs again. The S&P 500, a popular ETF, has turned in 11.23% by comparison. Over the past 3 years, the numbers are 77.17% and 33.04% - a performance advantage I see accelerating.

MyPOV: Cybersecurity isn’t optional—it’s now "must have" and execs with big, practically blank checkbooks know it.

The money’s moving, are you?

2 – NASA’s Boeing Black Eye, Saved by SpaceX

NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams were supposed to be back on Earth seven months ago after their one-week mission aboard Boeing’s Starliner. Instead, they’ve been stuck in space until—finally—today – nine months later - when they return aboard a SpaceX Crew-9 Dragon spacecraft. (Read)

Let that sink in… a NASA-Boeing mission, rescued by Elon Musk’s SpaceX.

Talk about a black eye for both NASA and Boeing.

Once again, private industry does it better, cleaner, and faster. Not to mention safer—at least in this instance.

Here’s where I get torn.

I watched Apollo 11 launch as a kid. I believed space was the final frontier—yes, I’m a Trekkie—a boundless human achievement, not a bureaucratic quagmire. Instead of pushing boundaries, it’s become a political statement rather than a celebration of the human spirit.

That said, the investing potential?

Ginormous.

Picking winners is another story, though.

You either take a disciplined, calculated approach—or you go full Vegas, tossing chips on the table knowing you’ll lose most of them.

Space is investable—but only for those who know what they’re doing and those who won’t need their money for a long time… if ever.

3 – Forever 21, the Retail Version of Groundhog Day

Forever 21 just filed for bankruptcy… for the second time in six years. (Read)

This time, they’re pointing fingers at Shein and Temu, claiming the Chinese e-retailers outpriced them into oblivion. Because, obviously, it couldn’t be their own fault. 🙄

Blaming ‘em for selling cheaper clothes (and everything else) is like blaming water for being wet.

Fast fashion is a race to the bottom—and Forever 21 just lost. Again.

This brings up something we’ve discussed on more than a few occasions.

If your business model can’t compete on price or product, you don’t have a business… at least not for long anyway. N+1, to borrow a term from billionaire Peter Thiel, just isn't investable to my way of thinking.

Next stop may be a liquidation sale here in the US (although the company seems determined to keep international locations open if I understand the situation correctly) ... who’s ready for some discount crop tops?

Keith's Investing Tip: “Nice-to-have” companies tend to die when times get tough. “Must-have” companies tend to thrive. Know the difference; if a business relies on hype rather than substance, it’s just a matter of time before it ends up in the financial graveyard.

4 – The Fed's Crystal Ball: Recession Edition

Hold onto your wallets, folks.

The Federal Reserve, in its infinite wisdom, now sees the risk of a recession rising. Yes, the same institution that assured us inflation was "transitory" is now predicting stormy economic weather. 

Should you worry?

I'm not. 

The Fed's track record is less than stellar, and their policies are about as coordinated as a cat herding convention.

On the other hand, the world's best companies are moving forward despite it all and that's what you want to focus on if you're an investor.

Buy the best, ignore the rest.

5 – JPM Backs Me Up

I’ve often said that today's markets have very little to do with valuations, headlines, or even major economic events. They’re increasingly dictated by big-money hedge funds and quant shops, which push trillions around at the touch of a button using ultra-sophisticated algorithms.

Now, a new note from JPM backs me up. (Read)

If you don’t understand that—and more importantly, if you don’t know which tactics can help you fight back—you might as well hang it up or at least consign yourself to poor results.

The missing piece?

Something called equity beta.

Most investors have never even heard of it, yet it’s one of the most important concepts in modern markets:

Equity beta measures how sensitive a stock (or portfolio) is to overall market moves.

Big money funds use beta like a weapon, leveraging high-beta names when they want risk and dumping them when they don’t.

This creates exaggerated swings—volatility that has nothing to do with fundamentals - something we've talked about many, many times.

If you’re investing or trading without understanding beta – and most investors are right now - you’re playing checkers while the big money plays chess... and probably at your expense.

At the risk of being entirely self-serving, this is why the One Bar Ahead® Family has an edge. They understand beta and how it impacts market moves, helping them become better, more consistent, and more effective investors. Instead of reacting to volatility, they anticipate it—positioning themselves ahead of Wall Street’s games rather than being played by them.

Hopefully YOU are doing the same thing and have this covered. If not and you'd like some help, you know where to find me.

Markets reward knowledge, not guesswork.