Keith Fitz-Gerald’s new year-end targets and more
Aug 11, 2021Good morning!
Early market action points higher as traders look to the upside. Stocks are shaking off delta variant fears, the Fed remains on the sidelines for now and so-called economic recovery stocks are leading the charge in the early going.
ALWAYS be in to win or you won’t …
Win!!!
Here’s my playbook.
1 – Every day is “Fed Day”
The markets are being driven higher by a combination of 1) earnings and 2) potential obstacles staying in the shadows including the Fed, jobs data, and China.
The potential for fireworks is highest this upcoming Friday when the next jobs data hits; there could be a short, sharp sell-off if the number is high enough that traders fear the Fed starts hiking rates later this year.
Meanwhile, I believe the S&P 500 finishes the year at 4,658.70, another ~6% higher from here. The bellwether index took out my first target of 4,100 in April then a revised target of 4,300 in early July.
J Powell and the Beltway Boys strike again!
Get your shirt now and revel in the absurdity of it all!
2 – Pfizer, Moderna, and BioNTech raise vaccine prices
Pfizer, Moderna, and BioNTech will raise prices for Covid-19 vaccines according to a report in the Financial Times. Profits will follow, of course.
People thought I was certifiably crazy when I said earlier this year that Wall Street’s $15 billion target for Pfizer’s vaccine related revenue was absurdly low and that $35 billion was far more likely. Pfizer recently raised its own target to $33.5 billion but even that strikes me as low.
FDA approval will only boost $$ and that could happen as soon as next month.
I hope I am smart enough to buy more on each dip!
3 – Why I’ve sold every Chinese stock I own
China hasn’t cracked down on anything new for the first time in several weeks but it’s not because they don’t want to. My sources tell me that the Chinese government is completely puzzled by international reaction to their harsh clampdown.
What Beijing can’t tally is the $1 trillion smack down – that and the fact that global bankers increasingly view China as a pariah.
I’ve exited every Chinese stock I owned/ recommended and am not keen to re-enter any time soon even if Alibaba reports good numbers.
Watch my take on Varney & Co. earlier this morning
4 – This stock could be the biggest sleeper on Wall Street
MGM reports this week and I think the numbers could be broadly demonstrative of the global reset we’ve been talking about for the last year and a half. I am particularly interested in the company for a different reason though. MGM has the exclusive license to develop a $9 billion casino resort near Osaka on a manmade island they’re calling Yumeshima (Dream Island).
Speaking from personal experience over the last 30+ years, if the Pachinko market is any indication of what's to come, this is going to be a monster!
5 – Crypto bulls point to this hurdle (and they’re right)
Technical analysts place a lot of emphasis on the 200-day moving average with good reason. It’s often referenced as a balancing point between bullish and bearish behavior. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum remain below their respective 200-day MA but could pierce that this week. Staying above it would go a long way towards regaining $50k.
Bottom Line
People have doubts about themselves, about the markets, about life.
That’s normal.
However, that’s also why I insist you MAKE it a great day.
Don't let anybody or anything stop you, not in life and certainly not in the markets.
You got this – I promise!
Keith
