JPM does it again (and I hope you own it)

Good morning! 👋

You hear me talk frequently about why investing in optimism is the only true path to profits.

Why?

Simple.

1. Positive mindset drives proactive action

Optimism requires proactive decision-making and a willingness to take calculated risks. That’s why optimistic investors are more likely to identify opportunities, make strategic investments, and capitalize on market trends. This proactive approach, in turn, leads to higher returns and greater success over time.

2. Confidence attracts investment and fuels market growth

Optimism breeds confidence, which is a powerful catalyst for attracting investment and stimulating market growth. At the same time, positive sentiment creates a positive feedback loop where increased investment leads to improved market performance, which, in turn, reinforces optimism. Both drive sustained upward momentum and favorable outcomes in the financial markets over time.

Ergo... BE POSITIVE!

And INVEST IN OPTIMISM!

Here’s my playbook.

JPM does it again—you know what to do

As I thought would be the case when I said that I was watching JPM closely this past Monday during a conversation with the fabulous Stuart Varney (Watch), Team Dimon nailed it.

JPM turned in a double beat—meaning on the top and bottom lines. (Read)

Well done to all following along!

And if you're not, but would like to join a family of super-smart, super-fun, like-minded investors in pursuit of financial freedom, I’d be honoured to toss my hat in the ring. Upgrade to Paid

Attn. OBAers: I’ll have specific instructions in today’s AMAs, so be sure to check your email!

If you signed up for Threads...

I’ve made no bones about it...

I will not invest in Meta because I believe that CEO Mark Zuckerberg is as ruthless as they come, especially when it comes to collecting customer data in the name of manipulating... err, publishing... social commentary.

There was the Cambridge Analytica Scandal in 2018, which raised concerns about how Facebook handled (and facilitated) access to millions of users without their consent.

Facebook/Meta has been accused of creating echo chambers via content algorithms and highly targeted advertising, which expose people only to information Meta wants and arguably reinforce specific beliefs.

The company is under fire for emotional manipulation, thanks to studies like the 2012 “Facebook emotional contagion experiment," in which it altered the content shown to users to measure emotional responses.

The platform’s design has raised serious concerns about addictive behaviour and negative mental impact—including features like infinite scrolling and notifications, which social scientists believe promote excessive usage and potential negative psychological effects like anxiety, depression, and decreased well-being.

Surveillance... people are worried about the Chinese, which makes no sense considering every user has just voluntarily contributed to the greatest human data repository in history.

Well, Zuck just did it again.

Meta now owns your tax return info.

According to a report by Senate Democrats, Meta has purchased the tax information of tens of millions of Americans from three large tax-preppers in order to improve its targeted Facebook and Instagram ads.

Put another way, what this means is you just got Zucked again if you’re doing your taxes with H&R Block, TaxAct, or TaxSlayer. Chances are that El Zucko and his bunch of merry marauders now own your super-private, sensitive tax return data (Read)… on top of insurance companies, credit reporting agencies, and more that have aggregated your medical records, financial records, etc.

Oh... and in case you think I’m joking around or this isn’t that bad, consider this.

You can deactivate your Threads profile at any time, but you can only delete it if you wipe your Instagram account too. 🤦‍♂️

My guess is that Zuck made a calculated decision that any fines levied when this comes to light will be an acceptable cost of doing business because he’s “got the data.”

The stock has been on fire and has tacked on 160.44% YTD, but it’s looking toppish to me, which is why I find myself thinking about puts as a path to profits next week if Meta corrects.

Remember: There is always a path to profits, even when it comes to stocks we don’t “like”—or in this case, I don’t like.

It’s official, aspartame may cause cancer

There’s no doubt in my mind that the rapid rise of artificial ingredients has played a significant role in the rise of cancer and other nasties over the past 50 years. Now the WHO is closing in on the same thinking. (Read)

Soda makers aren’t sweating the findings yet, but I think there’s going to be an incredible investment opportunity as customizable medicine develops.

In the old days, I’d have said short a KO or a PEP and go long a medical development company. The problem with that is, both Coke and Pepsi have wisely built defensible positions by diversifying their businesses well beyond just sugary sodas.

Hmmm.

The real play is going to be AI-driven medical tech companies that work with data to speed up laboratory development... and have for some time, as the One Bar Ahead® Family knows.

See #5... 😊

NIO wants in... to the US?
You’ve probably heard that US companies don’t enjoy a level playing field in China.

Now the tables are turning.

Chinese car maker Nio says it faces material tariffs and unfair trade barriers in the US, which it wants to enter. (Read)

Ordinarily, I wouldn’t give a rip, but in this case, I think the situation is worth a closer look.

1. Nio has created a very interesting “battery swap” technology model that it must scale along with sales to make its business model work. And,
2. Nio is operating straight out of Toyota’s playbook from the early 1970s, which means the company clearly has global aspirations at a time when most people are tempted to dismiss it.

I can envision this becoming a major contention point for Beijing, but only for as long as it takes to gain access to the technology and data needed to procure, steal, or otherwise abscond with what's needed to ensure a really “fair” fight.

Meanwhile, I’m content to hold a few ultra-speculative NIO shares.

Time to bet on biotech?

The path to profits is pretty simple when you get right down to it.

You a) find the world’s best companies making “must have” products and services, and b) buy ‘em when nobody else wants to.

Biotech comes to mind as I look at the data.

A report from Precedence Research suggests that the global biotech market will top $1.68 trillion by 2030, up 1.95X from $859.94 billion in 2022. That implies a compound annual growth rate of 8.78%, with North America leading the way in terms of spending.

I think that’s low.

My analysis suggests $2 trillion, if you include the tech that’ll be needed to make this happen.

It could be a rare opportunity when buying an ETF like IBB makes more sense than trying to pick individual winners this early in the game.

Food for thought, and I’m hungry.

Bottom Line

Let’s finish the week strong.

And, of course, MAKE it a great day!

Keith 😊