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☕️ Is Intel “back?”

Oct 24, 2025

Howdy! 👋

The Dow’s at a new record while the S&P 500 and the Nazzy are up big – all on the heels of a “cool” inflation report.

My year-end target is still 7000.

Always remember.

You’ve got to be in to win or you won’t… win.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Beijing’s latest charm offensive

CNBC is reporting that China has struck a conciliatory tone ahead of Presidents Trump and Xi having a sit down in South Korea on 30 October. (Read)

In fact, Commerce Minister Wang Wentao said China “opposes decoupling” and that “dialogue and cooperation are the only right choice.”

Not surprisingly, his comments came after the Communist Party’s Fourth Plenum, where officials outlined the next five-year plan — heavy on new tech, consumption, and energy transition, and light on details about how to pay for any of it.

Vice Minister He Lifeng is already en route to Malaysia for trade talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent — a prelude to the main event.

Translation?

China realizes two things:

China’s home team hasn’t liberated enough Western hi-tech to dominate the space; and,
China might actually kinda need US markets.

Imagine that.

Now for the big enchilada.

What’s that mean for your money?

Invest because of China, not necessarily in China.

High tech US companies selling into China will see a growth spurt
Chinese companies with global aspirations will have Beijing's support
Game on in all things AI

Keith’s Investing Tip: Love it or hate it, your money doesn’t care. The Dragon is coming to dinner on Tuesday which means the only decision you’ve got to make is whether you want to be at the table or on the menu.

OBAers, stick to the plan and the companies at hand. 😀

2 – Is Intel “back?”

Intel just posted its strongest earnings since 2023. (Read)

Naturally Wall Street ate it up – hook, line and sinker as the old expression goes.

Revenue came in at $13.65 billion versus $13.14 billion expected, a 2.8% increase YoY.
Net income hit $4.1 billion, flipping from a $16.6 billion loss last year.

Intel even said demand for its chips now outpaces supply, with expectations that’ll continue through next year.

So is Intel a buy?

That’s the question on the minds of many.

No question that Uncle Sam’s infusion is helping keep the lights on but the markets seem to be saying more “welcome back” than “get on board.”

If Intel has staying power, it’ll show up in a few consecutive quarters of solid performance.

Not a one off like this one.

Meanwhile, I think there are a handful of other choices with considerably better upside, staying power and innovation – all of which lead to higher profit potential over time.

3 – Brussels to Big Tech: “obey or pay”

The European Commission just accused TikTok and Meta of breaking the EU’s landmark Digital Services Act — you know… the one meant to keep Big Tech from running amok. (Read)

Regulators say both companies blocked researchers from accessing public data, making it harder to study how social platforms spread harmful content — especially to kids.

Not coincidentally – to my way of thinking – Meta also made flagging illegal content a nightmare for users. Something I can attest to firsthand given the spammers and criminals who think impersonating me is akin to a national sport. But that’s another story for another time.

Brussels could slap each with fines of up to 6% of global annual revenue — that’s billions with a “B.”

Meta insists it’s “compliant” and “transparent”. (Yeah, and I’m 6’5’’ 🤦‍️)

TikTok’s defense is even more creative — arguing that following one EU law (the DSA) might actually violate another (GDPR). Put another way, “we’d totally follow the rules if we could figure out which ones today.”

The EU’s response?

Nice try.

MyPOV: Protecting children is absolutely imperative, and social media giants are as guilty as the day is long in this department, anecdotally speaking, imho. I wish that global regulators, particularly US regulators, would hold ‘em accountable by modifying the various digital rights acts they hide behind but that’s just me.

The bigger issue, generally speaking, is that EU regulators seem to remain far more interested in clipping wings rather than helping innovation take flight. Every new rule is pitched as protection but it’s really more bureaucracy.

Every time I’ve travelled to Europe over the past 20 years, executives tell me they want to “start up” in America where the regs are more realistic, the capital more available and the incentives bigger.

Not a mystery why Silicon Valley and Beijing increasingly call the shots while Brussels calls another meeting. 🤷🏻‍

Sigh.

4 – Ford’s fire drill

Ford beat earnings… then torched its own guidance saying that a fire at one of its suppliers will burn up ~$1.5-$2B in profits and slow production. (Read)

Ford’s game of catch-up is already outta gas.

Tesla’s years ahead — with a full lineup (Model 3, Y, S, X, Cybertruck, Semi) that’s all tied together by data, robots, and vertical integration that will help it make 10X the profit per vehicle Ford does with 10 vehicles over the next 10 years.

Something else.

Tesla owns all its IP – intellectual property – lock, stock and barrel. Ford, meanwhile, is stitching together suppliers like it’s 1999.

And if you love your Ford, that’s awesome… it’s a great brand with a long-storied history.

Just understand that your money may prefer Tesla, which has handily outperformed Ford over the past 3-, 5- and 10-year periods.

Keith’s Investing Tip: The future is being rebuilt right in front of us and the leaders are reinventing how it’s done. Ignore ‘em at your own risk.

5 – What took ya so long Target?!

Target just announced that it’s cutting 1,800 corporate jobs — about 8% of its headquarters workforce — in its first major round of layoffs in a decade. (Read)

Incoming CEO Michael Fiddelke, who takes the top job in February, says the cuts will “simplify operations” and “speed up growth.”

Uh, yeah.

Sales are stagnant, and Wall Street’s tired of waiting.

Target’s been stuck in a four-year sales slump, losing ground to competitors like Walmart, which gets half its revenue from groceries and essentials. Target’s heavier focus on discretionary items — clothes, home goods, décor — leaves it far more exposed when consumers pull back.

Cost cuts can dress up a quarter, but they can’t create strategy.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Companies that are cutting jobs to “simplify” are usually simplifying the wrong thing. That’s why investors who are in to win – something I talk about a lot - focus on leaders growing revenue, not shrinking payrolls.

The way I see it, Target isn’t even a contender.

The stock is -33.93% over the past 12 months. The S&P 500 (SPY), by comparison, is +18.47%. My favourite retailer has returned +28.80%, by comparison.

Sometimes what you don’t buy is just as important as what you do!

It’s an important reminder that you’ve got to pick your bets carefully.

Case in point, I am frequently asked about “hot stocks” by folks around the world.

Wrong question.

If you really want to be a successful investor, you want to focus on stocks that’ll be there when you need ‘em; it’s a very short, very focused list.

If that’s of interest, you know where to find me.