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Forget retail earnings and keep your eyes on the prize

Nov 21, 2023

Good morning! 👋

Today is “retail day,” apparently, and the markets look set to give up gains following weak guidance from the likes of Best Buy, Lowe’s, and American Eagle.

Early action could also be an orchestrated “head-fake” ahead of Nvidia’s earnings.

So there is that.

Here’s my playbook.

Lowe’s—is anybody surprised, really?

We’ve talked about Home Depot, Target, and several other retailers earlier this month and how strapped customers are not only cutting back but buying less.

To that end, Lowe’s announced earnings this morning and delivered their near-perfect carbon copy of Home Depot’s commentary. (Read)

MyPOV: Home Depot and Lowe’s are particularly important canaries in the proverbial coal mine because they speak to how flush consumers feel. Or not. When I see customers buying big-ticket items and pushing loaded carts is when I’ll know that the economy has truly turned a corner. Put another way, customers are replacing sinks right now, but when the economy turns, they’ll be remodeling the entire bathroom, if that makes sense.

Now hundreds of OpenAI employees threaten to follow Altman

CNBC reports that 667 of 770 employees have signed the letter demanding OpenAI’s remaining board members resign or they’ll walk to join Altman’s new venture at Microsoft, which has apparently assured those employees that they’ll have a spot if they want one. (Read)

Can you spell D-E-B-A-C-L-E?!?!

As I noted yesterday, the situation is a massive win for Microsoft, to which I will add today… one that cements its AI leadership.

Just when you thought you’d seen it all

Reuters is reporting that North Korean IT workers are using fake names, counterfeit work papers, and sham LinkedIn profiles to get hired as remote workers in Western tech companies. (Read)

Talk about a gutsy move!

I’ve long said that America’s enemies would use any means possible to gain access to competitive information while playing to the West’s weaknesses—including, in this case, remote workers.

This is an HR director’s worst nightmare because our legal system is not presently equipped to deal with preemptive employment bias as a way of filtering potential applicants. Fraud yes, but deception no.

Espionage, particularly when it’s being played at the very highest levels by deliberately bad actors, is terribly difficult to detect. I can imagine an employment-specific form of AI on the horizon intended to root out this kind of stuff.

Stay tuned!

Nvidia for the win

AI chip maker Nvidia reports later today, and expectations are high. Not only that, but so is the company’s stock, which finished at a record high yesterday.

I laid out three possible trading options for the OBA Family in yesterday’s update, and if you are part of it, I hope you’re ready. If you’re not and are just reading along as part of the 5 with Fitz family, that’s totally cool by me.

Either way, get ready for some fireworks!

Keith’s Tip: Many investors focus on stocks like Nvidia, but that’s as far as their thinking goes. Few realize that volatility can play an important role in how a stock is treated ahead of and after major earning announcements. A well-rounded investor will take both into consideration, which is why I encourage everyone to have a plan and stick to it. Flying by the seat of your pants or waiting for “confirmation” doesn’t count in today’s highly computerized markets.

Bookies are gonna love this!

A new tech startup called Jabbr has released what it’s calling the world’s first computer vision AI for combat sports.

The company’s program, which is aptly named “DeepStrike,” will allow you to turn any camera or even your iPhone into a real-time tool capable of measuring things like aggression, foot work, and even types of punches to gauge fighters in real time. (Read)

Three things come to mind.

First, an application like this could dramatically change the way fighters train because it would allow them to adapt their tactics to other fighters they are likely to encounter in the ring.

As an aside, I’m speaking from experience; I fought full-contact karate back in the days when Chuck Norris and Bill “Superfoot” Wallace reigned supreme. My coach and I spent a lot of time studying potential opponents, and I would have loved to have had access to a tool like this. And yes, my neck is probably catching up with me as payback [doh]!

Second, Vegas bookies are going to have a field day because DeepStrike could conceivably allow ‘em to change the odds even more quickly than they can today. I’m not sure if spreads will widen or narrow, but the potential impact could be very much the same as the one that 0DTE options have had on the stock market.

And third, I can also see a shift in so-called fantasy leagues based on this technology, which will undoubtedly be applied to other sports over time.