Fear has firmly shifted to FOMO

Good morning!

‍Futures are up as I type as the markets claw higher on hopes that inflation has peaked.

Here’s my playbook.

How much higher?

The bears and macro bros are still at it, of course.

Don’t let ‘em sway you.

The markets have concluded Powell doesn’t have the chutzpa to “pull a Volker” which means that big traders can get on the gas as long as the pace of “aggressive” rate hikes remains measured.

I think the rally continues into fall, although not in a straight line. We’re going to get a look at retail earnings next week and I have a sneaky suspicion those are going to roil the market gods. Walmart, will be key.

Fear has become FOMO. There’s a ton of money coming in off the sidelines and it’s the big money, not just retail investors. Not that I suggested this would be the case in late June or anything, but I did.

Hopefully you paid attention and jumped on board. I’d hate to see you miss out. Speaking of which …

Prices have now risen far enough that it’s time to lift some of your hedges, meaning lighten up (not remove entirely).

I gave the OBA Family details Wednesday night when we opened our Master Class. Be sure and watch the replay if you’re a One Bar Ahead™ reader. If not and you’d like to be … (Learn More)

They’re rocking the rally!

Rivian out of energy

Not surprisingly, Rivian has now said the company expects a wider loss for the year than previously projected. The forecast is still 25,000 vehicles but capital expenditures are being reduced. (Read)

Translation: The company is burning through cash faster than expected and is worried about the $15.5B lasting long enough to start production on the R2 by 2025.

Not good.

Still don’t own Rivian and with this, won’t.

Tesla is still the clear winner, a sentiment echoed by my friend and colleague Gene Munster of Loop Ventures during a recent CNBC appearance. (Watch)

IRS so bad that Yellen finger-wags ‘em

The IRS is gonna hire 87,000 new agents … literally a football stadium worth … and people are rightfully worried the newly cash flush agency is going to stick it to the middle class. (Read)

Including apparently, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen who cautioned the agency to focus on “high-end” noncompliance as opposed to mom and pop.

Or what exactly, Janet?

Are you gonna take away their cookies? Restrict recess? Not give them crayons for art class?

Finger wagging won’t cut it. If you don’t like the widely-anticipated and even more widely telegraphed likely outcome, why not head this off at the pass with serious penalties for any agents involved in unnecessary audits, fishing expeditions or the like?

Just a thought …

Brain bubble: The additional cost of compliance is going to roast already stretched small businesses driving 70% of our economy at a time when they don’t need the guff.

Investors getting heartburn

GlaxoSmithKline, Pfizer, Sanofi and Haleon have all sold off sharply this week as fears of Zantac-related litigation wreck prices. (Read)

Reminds me of Roundup and Bayer. It’s a short-term reaction, not a change in long-term perspective.

If you own’em, I say hold’em, especially Pfizer.

Meta AI: Zuck’s creepy

This is rich.

The geniuses over at Meta turned on their new AI chatbot BlenderBot3 and asked for its thoughts on founder Mark Zuckerberg. (Read)

Here’s what it said. What I would have given to have been a fly on the wall.

“too creepy and manipulative”

“not always ethical”

“still wears the same clothes”

“not crazy about Facebook … because it seems like everyone spends more time on Facebook than they do talking face-to-face anymore”

Ummm.

Bottom Line

The bigger you want to hit, the bigger the game you must play.

Get started now!

And with that, it’s Friday!

MAKE it a strong finish this week, then cut loose!

Have a fabulous weekend.

Keith