Do 3 things right now or forever hold your peace

Good morning!

Stocks have stabilized, albeit after some concerted selling as traders grapple with Russia/Ukraine and oil prices/interest rates.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – 3 steps to take immediately

Russia is not backing off and the risks of war are rising.

Both sides are exchanging shots but that appears to be largely (and deliberately) under-reported for obvious reasons … nobody wants to throw gas on the fire.

There’s also footage of the Russian embassy in Ukraine using their chimney for the first time since 2014… and we all know what that means; they’re not electing a Pope!

And news is breaking as I type that Putin is apparently going to be personally supervising big-time nuclear drills tomorrow.

The markets are still underestimating the situation IMHO just like many did ahead of Covid when yours truly also sounded the alarm bell. The market pullback will be worse than Crimea if Russia rolls.

Do three things right now:

1. Decide right now what stocks you will sell and what you will hold
2. Set trailing stops now or hedge with options/inverse funds
3. Get your “buy list” ready

The last step is super-critical because markets almost always overreact to geopolitical events … and that’s an opening, not the end of the world like most people think.

My hat is off to you if you have a “buy list” because that means you’re already ahead of 99% of investors and traders who are stuck on step #1.

If you don’t know what to do next and you’d like help, please join the One Bar Ahead™ Family. Not only will I be sharing what to buy, but how and when too. (Learn more)

2 – Got $1.7 million? - you can preview the metaverse

Disney is banking that a few folks do and is planning to build a “Storyliving” community in Coachella, California. (Read)

I’m not expecting it to move the needle from an investing standpoint, but I’ll be watching carefully for the way people interact with the brand because I think “living Disney” will be a preview of the Metaverse.

3 – Already tight housing market to get worse

Don’t say I didn’t tell you this was coming.

Inflation has made materials exceedingly expensive so builders are cutting back. Rising rates are making mortgages more expensive so fewer people qualify. Many people are simply staying put which means inventory is low. (Read)

Home prices may spike in a last gasp this year … but then watch out!

4 – Anybody shorting innovation is making a bad bet.

I’ve seen a lot of back-seat driving in recent days when it comes to Cathie Wood. She’s “giving up on Palantir” cried one grave dancer yesterday.

No, she’s not any more than she’s “throwing in the towel” on other high-tech picks as others have alleged.

Wood sold 4 million shares (of the 24 million her funds own) yesterday and bought TXG, ROKU, TWLO, PATH, ZM, RBLX, and SHOP according to ARK’s website.

She’s simply rebalanced into other opportunities; a move I’d make too if I were in her shoes and had that kind of cash sitting around. (Watch)

5 – The “house” is still winning

US casinos apparently took in $53 billion in 2021 according to the American Gaming Association and AP. That is the best year ever and 21% higher than pre-pandemic levels. (Read)

Makes me want to buy growth stocks making data processing chips needed to power casino gaming and payday lenders.

Both thrive on the get rich quick crowd.

Bottom Line

Success is not for unmotivated people.

Not in life.

Not in the markets.

Get busy!

You got this – I promise.

Have a fabulous weekend,

Keith

PS: I will be spending next week in Sin City at the Las Vegas MoneyShow and TradersExpo and then, taking a little catch up time with my bride who’s very patiently been waiting for me to take a day off. We’ll start back up the week of the 28th!

PPS: I will have plenty of car time in both directions so please feel free to hit me up on Twitter. I know it’s not everybody’s cup of tea but that’s where I’ll be … @fitz_keith.