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☕️ CrowdStrike, should you buy it?

Mar 05, 2025

Howdy! 👋

The markets are going to be all over the map for the next little while for any number of reasons.

Excellent!

Every dip is a chance to buy the right names.
Every rip is a chance to unload the dogs.

History shows beyond any shadow of a doubt that missing opportunity is always more expensive than trying to avoid losses from things you can’t control.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – CrowdStrike – should you buy it?

CrowdStrike reported Q4 earnings, beating both top and bottom-line estimates. (Read)

Revenue came in at $1.06 billion, +25.2% YoY

Rule of 40 score of 56 (anything over 40 is fabulous so this is awesome!)

Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) grew 23% YoY to $4.24 billion

>350 deals worth over $1M

Subscription revenue topped $1B for the first time

97% gross retention

Yet, shares are down ~10% as I type.

What gives?

Concerns about disappointing guidance, or at least that’s the official story making the rounds in the media today.

Like heck!

We’ve seen this pattern so many times in recent years that it’s laughable that so many folks continue to fall for it. And heck knows, we’ve sure talked about it enough.

In case you’re just joining us, here’s the skinny:

First, Wall Street picks a stock where they know there’s likely to be good earnings AND which has high retail investor attention. Ie. CRWD.

Second, they run it up into earnings while sucking in the FOMO crowd.

Third, they promptly engineer a rug pull after the call that separates unsuspecting investors from their money by clearing out trailing stops and other conditional orders they knew retail traders would place because a) they’re greedy and b) because they can see every last one of ‘em a mile away.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Always do what Wall Street does, not what it says! Knowing how the game is played is a huge advantage because it means you can sidestep the chaos and use it to your advantage.

NOW – as in with the stock down 10% - is when you want to take action.

There are literally dozens of high probability tactics to choose from depending on your skill set. Examples include LowBall Orders, Selling Cash Secured Puts and more.

If you have no idea what those are or are simply tired of fighting for Wall Street’s table scraps, I’ll be here, and I’d love to help you up your game if that’s of interest.

If you’ve got this covered, excellent – charge on!! 💯

2 – Amazon: Just Another Sony?

Amazon is reportedly developing own AI reasoning model … to compete with OpenAI’s o3-mini and DeepSeek’s R1. (Read)

I really feel sorry for CEO Andy Jassy.

Amazon was once a dominant force in cloud computing, e-commerce, and logistics …only now it’s chasing trends rather than setting ‘em.

Remember when AWS defined the cloud? When Alexa was the AI assistant to beat? When Amazon’s innovations led the market instead of reacting to it?

Now, Amazon’s playing catch-up in AI, lagging behind Microsoft, Google, and even scrappier startups that move faster and think bigger.

This reminds me of a once-great prizefighter who refuses to accept he’s past his prime—still in the ring, still throwing punches, but increasingly outclassed by younger, sharper opponents.

Or Sony.

The once-mighty electronics giant that ruled everything from TVs to Walkman to PlayStation, only to get leapfrogged by more aggressive, more innovative players.

Today, Sony still exists. It still sells things. But it’s a shadow of what it was—a company that no longer leads but merely survives.

Amazon risks the same fate.

MyPOV → There are scores of once great brands that still engender tremendous customer loyalty despite the fact that they may have already begun what could be a long, painful slide to the bottom that clobbers a lot of portfolios.

3 – Another day, another new Palantir partnership

Palantir and TWG Global have announced a joint venture to integrate AI across banking, investment management, and insurance. (Read)

This partnership combines Palantir’s AI infrastructure with TWG’s industry expertise to embed AI into every core function—not just within IT.

Unlike conventional AI tools that remain siloed, this initiative creates an enterprise-wide “artificial workforce,” revolutionizing areas like fraud detection, compliance, capital optimization, and risk monitoring.

Palantir is quietly becoming the go-to operating system across industries.

Every legacy provider is at risk - Oracle, Siemens, SAP and more – the lot of ‘em.

Invest accordingly.

My only fear when it comes to Palantir is that I may not have enough shares.

$200.

4 – Forget tanks and jets, the most powerful weapon today is algorithms

Scale AI has secured a multimillion-dollar contract with the DoD to integrate AI into military planning and operations. (Read)

Unfortunately, it’s private so we can’t invest.

But we can take this contract at face value because it confirms exactly what I’ve been saying for a while now.

The DoD is doubling down on AI and any investor who does not factor this into his or her thinking is already being left behind.

So don’t be left behind.

Simple as that.

OBAers, you know which names are on the shopping list and why. 😀

5 – Who knew?! Shoes aren’t big business 🤦‍

Adidas just set a cautious tone for the year—shocker. (Read)

Nike? Foot Locker? Same story. (Read)

This isn’t just about sneakers. It’s a brutal reminder of something we’ve talked about many times.

When the economy tightens, “must-haves” crush “nice-to-haves.”

And guess what?

Fancy sneaks—no matter how hyped, limited edition, or celebrity-endorsed—are a nice-to-have.

I have repeatedly encouraged you to avoid all things retail with two notable exceptions and that’s a bet I don’t see changing any time soon.

MyPOV: You know what never goes out of style? AI, tech, defense, healthcare - the real “must-haves.” That’s where the money flows when the economy gets rough.

Hopefully you’ve got a few shares of each in your portfolio. If not and you’d like some help, I’ll be here.