Buy this, not that!

Good morning!

The markets are probably in for a little listless trading which is consistent with pre-Thanksgiving activity. Don’t confuse that with lethargy – the best investors are watching, waiting, and ready to pounce on any opening that gets created. And I encourage you to do the same!

Here’s my playbook.

1 – “A broken clock”

Michael Burry, who shot to fame as part of the 2015 movie The Big Short, took to Twitter last Sunday to theorize why Tesla CEO Elon Musk sold his shares. And, promptly drew the wrath of Musk himself who called him “a broken clock.” Evidently Burry doesn’t have a thick skin … he deleted his Twitter account a short time later.

Burry has notoriously shorted Tesla for ages and, presumably, gotten shellacked. (Read)

Moreover, Burry was also betting against Cathie Wood’s ARK and US Treasuries according to Bloomberg. (Read)

Mess with the bull and get the horns... again!

2 – That ‘70s show, at least in California

Gas prices at the pump are hitting all time highs in California which pays about $0.40 more per gallon than the rest of the country. More regulation and shutting down a Bay Area refinery have created a serious supply pinch. Smart politicians and policy wonks would be wise to study what’s happening, because it is a precursor of what’s to come nationally … but sadly, most won’t. (Read)

Energy stocks are a continuum, not an on-off switch. That’s why you want to own a range of producers, pipelines and breakthrough plays. IMHO.

3 – Walmart or Home Depot?

Both just clobbered earnings. The former as inflation-hit consumers reach for good pricing and the latter as consumers fix up their homes. I’d rather own Walmart for 2 reasons: 1) because eating is a lot more critical than redoing the kitchen; and 2) Walmart has a much bigger, deeper footprint so it can manage supply chain problems far more effectively and profitably. (Read)

There’s an even better retailer though.

I recommended adding shares last August and anybody following along has enjoyed an 18.2% run higher versus just 5.61% from the S&P 500 over the same time frame. That’s 3.2X better than folks “buying the index” or investing passively. Best of all, it’s not too late to buy. Get the stock now

4 – More proof you really do want to own the best - RIVN

Monday’s stock gains were $15 billion … which is more than the combined value of Nikola, Fisker, Lordstown Motor and Workhorse combined. Proving once again that you go with the best because the rest get left in the dust. (Read)

I issued profit-taking instructions yesterday to the One Bar Ahead™ Family so you’ll want to check your email if you haven’t already. If not, that’s cool. Just make sure you have a plan because things will move quickly from here.

5 – PTON – turns out putting iPads on bikes is not a world-changing event

If you’ve been reading my work for any length of time, you know that I’ve been trying to short this stock forever … unsuccessfully! Now, PTON has filed for a $1 billion stock offering and shares have fallen off a cliff. I was a year early! (Read)

Now, let’s see HOG’s next move!!

Bottom Line

Focus on making money and learning what it takes to do that rather than wasting a lot of energy trying to find the blue light special or getting something for free.

Just sayin’.

Now, as always, get out there and make it a GREAT day!


Keith