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Buy Apple before earnings?

Apr 28, 2022

Good morning!

The markets continue to mount a comeback and that’s great!

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Woke-a-Cola: why you should care

The National Legal and Policy Center (NLPC), an ethics watchdog, has made Coke their first target when it comes to persuading companies to stay out of politics.

This is a super-serious development with even more serious investment implications.

The NLPC has floated a resolution that would require the Chairman of the Board of Directors to be an independent position which, if passed, means that CEO Quincey would either have to be President or CEO. Not both. (Read)

I think it could dramatically change the ESG landscape, and not in a good way either. Targeted companies may lose the ability to operate effectively and efficiently which – no surprise – could make them dramatically less profitable.

Speaking of which …

2 – ESG investing has a problem most investors don’t see coming

ESG investing has become very popular in recent years despite having been around a long time. The problem is that the numbers don’t add up. And, in fact, could be a drag on performance.

My take with the fantastic Scott “the Cow Guy” Shellady earlier this week. (Watch).

3 – Buy Apple before earnings?

I think so. Forget about any short-term liquidity-based squiggles. The company is down nearly 14% YTD yet is firing on all cylinders. Factory shortages, chip shortages, inflation … not a big deal in the scheme of things. Apple reported all of those things before Q4 2021 and blew higher anyway. (Read)

Services and paid subscriptions are a gold mine. Not surprisingly, every new product feeds both.Apple isn’t just a shot in the dark or some last ditch effort to put gas in the proverbial tank.

My research shows very clearly that stocks that are the “best” dramatically outperform the rest over time.

The best stocks fall less, are more stable, and recover faster during uncertain times.

That’s why I prioritize the “best” over the “rest” in my investing journal, One Bar Ahead™.Obviously, I never encourage anybody to go “all in” on one stock. That’s just downright foolish. Stupid, even.

Instead, I encourage savvy investors to own ‘em as part of a carefully designed, thematically driven portfolio I call the 50-40-10 that’s both offensive and defensive at the same time.

The way I see things, you need every edge you can get. At least if you’re as serious about your investing as I am about mine.

If you’ve got this covered, cool.

Most investors have no idea what to do next which is why they’re getting hammered. And sadly, we all know how that ends.

Think about how many big market moves you’ve missed even though you knew they were coming.

Don’t let that happen again.

I’m here and I’d love to earn your trust, goodwill and business. (Learn more)

And, yes, I have skin in the game in case you’re wondering. One Bar Ahead™ is a family business, not some anonymous publishing house that’ll take your money and run. It’s personal.

4 – Archegos will make Dark Pools look like amateur hour

Bill Hwang, former head of Archegos Capital was charged with racketeering, wire fraud, fraud and more yesterday for his role in a $30 billion blowup that roiled global markets last year. (Read)

That’s not actually the interesting part.

The government will have to prove how Hwang accomplished large-scale market manipulation using some of the most sophisticated, least known trading instruments on the planet … total return swaps.

It’ll be the first time most retail investors hear about ‘em and the way they’re used will make AMC-style Dark Pool market manipulation look like amateur hour.

Hwang and his crew, for example, secretly controlled more than 50% of the shares in ViacomCBS and more than 35% of the daily trading volume in several other companies.

Spoiler alert for investors: fundamentals and technicals have nothing to do with price action. Nothing!

‍Reform is long overdue and – IMHO – this is the kinda crap Gensler and his squad ought to be focused on.

5 – Got $5,000 to invest?

McDonald's (MCD) just topped estimates and beat on both sales and revenue. (Read)

Importantly, the company just stuck it to every half-wit who said the business would suffer because of inflation by raising prices to maintain margins.

This is a very simple proposition.

Much of what investors have been taught to believe about investing in the face of rising rates is not correct and does not reflect reality.

I’ve got five other stocks just like MCD in the One Bar Ahead™ Family and – yes – they’re all more than capable of holding their own a la “Uncle Ronald.”