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Buffett just bought-here’s the best in class

Feb 15, 2023

Good morning! 👋

Welcome to another day of Fed Follies!

Traders are trying to make heads or tails of retail sales and CPI data based on what they think the Fed will do next.

What a waste of time!

The path to profits is as pure as it is simple.

You buy the world’s best companies making “must-have products and services” when nobody wants ‘em, and you sell when others can’t resist buying.

This isn’t rocket science!

Here’s my playbook.

Oops, we did it again: AAPL

Mark my words, I said during the worst of the selling last year… Buffett will be buying… so it makes all kinds of sense that smart investors do, too.

Guess what?

The latest regulatory filings show that Buffett’s Berkshire just laid out another $3.2 billion for shares of Apple, which brings their tally to 5.8% of outstanding shares. (Read)

OBA subscribers have been adding steadily since January 2021, of course... which means they’re already sitting pretty because they’ve used the downdraft to their advantage just like Uncle Warren has.

U-rah!

BTW, if your broker or financial advisor didn’t encourage you to make a similar move, I submit that it’s time for a serious conversation. Or perhaps just a subscription to my premier research journal, One Bar Ahead®. As you may know, I’m on a mission with thousands of savvy, fun, and interesting investors and traders just like yourself to beat Wall Street at its own game by sharing actionable research ideas you might find pretty dang valuable. Upgrade to Paid

Retail sales make this stock an even better buy

According to the US Census Bureau, retail sales jumped unexpectedly 3% month on month, which is waaaay above the projected 1.8% rise economists expected. (Read)

Many investors will logically focus on retail stocks because they assume those will benefit, but that’s a mistake. The bigger jump—if you really fancy the big bucks—is farther up the proverbial food chain where consumers continue to ramp up spending at an even faster pace.

One of my favs is holding at 118%+ off its 52-week lows as I type and, incredibly, may still have plenty of room to run.

OBAers: I recently sent you instructions about how to create a FreeTrade for the stock I’m alluding to when it hit 100%... so hopefully you’ve done that. If not, don’t dally, because the last thing you want to do is let a winner get away from you!

Why Beijing loves Biden’s charging network plan

Every EV charging station contains roughly 3.5 kg of copper, and the Biden administration wants at least 500,000 publicly accessible ones on US roadways by 2030.

So far, so good.

And he wants 55% of the cost to come from US components, which bodes well for investors.

Excellent.

Tesla has already agreed to toss in 7,500 by 2024. (Read) ChargePoint, GM, and Ford will presumably play along when they’re capable, assuming the Chinese want to, of course. 🤦‍♂️

Oh wait...

Last month, the president slapped a 20-year mining ban on Minnesota land that could have provided a good chunk of taconite, copper, nickel, cobalt, platinum, and all sorts of other EV-essential materials.

Doh!!!

There are only 25 copper-producing mines in the United States—and 17 of them are responsible for more than 99% of production. (Read)

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) owns 3 of the top 5 copper-producing mines outright and has a majority stake in the top-producing mine in the US. It trades at a 16.3X P/E right now... you know what to do.

Is SBF cleaning up evidence or simply watching football?

Prosecutors are grumbling because SBF—Sam Bankman Fried—of FTX infamy has apparently been using VPNs to watch football. Which means (ta da) it’s finally dawned on ‘em that they can’t monitor his behaviour online. (Read)

Ya think???!!!

That’s kinda what a VPN is for… going online without people being able to track you.

The conspiracy theorist in me wonders if SBF will walk after all if a) the prosecution and the court system are so far behind the “basics” that they couldn’t have envisioned this wrinkle from the beginning; or b) whether somebody waaaaay up the food chain is “allowing” him to clean up damning evidence ahead of time.

We still haven’t seen the Epstein flight list, for example.

Where’s my tin foil hat…

The Rule of the Back Page: Marburg outbreak

I often talk about Keith’s Rule of the Back Page because that’s where you often find the most compelling investment opportunities—months or even years before the herd does. By the time something hits the front page, it’s too late.

Case in point, I’m seeing terrifying news from Equitorial Guinea where there’s a new Marburg outbreak.

You’d think we would have learned a thing or two from COVID, but nooooooo… it’s business as usual. That means there will be a race to vaccines (again) if this thing gets out of control.

There are only a handful of players, and chances are, you know who they are, just like I do.

My favourite has returned a healthy 9% over the past five years, which doesn’t sound like much until you realize it has a Beta of just 0.58 which means it’s roughly half as volatile as the broader markets.

Stability & income… count me in!

You?

OBA Implication: Frankly, I don’t like thinking about this stuff any more than you do. But I don’t have the luxury of turning off the headlines in my capacity as an investment strategist. My job is to identify opportunity no matter how or why I see it or even how uncomfortable it may be. Then share that with everyone who wants to be one bar ahead of what happens next. The Rule of the Back Page has never failed, BTW.