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☕️ Broadcom’s mystery customer and a big beat – hooyah!

Sep 05, 2025

Howdy! 👋

Futures were all green but the markets have quickly “split” after the opening bell – meaning that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are (barely) green while the Dow is in the red.

The official story, of course, is that futures were higher because weak jobs data has traders locking in bets that the Fed will cut rates at its September meeting. Some are even whispering about a half-point “super-cut.”

We know better.

What’s really going on – and what you want to pay attention to - is that traders are betting on what happens next.

The markets have split because that risk is getting repriced in real time. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the S&P 500 roll red by the time you read this, in fact. Maybe even the Nazzy, too.

That’s how the markets really work.

The irony is that earnings are based on what’s happened in the past, but prices always reflect what’s likely to happen in the future. Ergo, you want to invest “forward” if you’re interested in profits based on where the world is going rather than where it’s been.

Which reminds me.

Investing in optimism beats cowering in pessimism any day, every day, over time. 😀

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Palantir customers can’t stop bragging, and that’s the point

Palantir has successfully completed AIPCon 8 – the company’s biggest confab and a place where customers line up to voluntarily share how fantastic Palantir’s AIP has been for ‘em.

Some of this year’s big success stories include:

American Airlines, which is using Palantir to integrate planning and operations through its “Vector” system — saving tens of millions of dollars in just one year by cutting down ripple-effect delays and enabling dynamic scheduling.

Lear, which is using Palantir’s AIP to power its JIT Control Tower and Scheduling Agent — improving production planning accuracy and exception handling across plants, and enabling near-real-time slotting of hot jobs that once took days.

Lumen Technologies — leveraging Foundry and AIP to migrate legacy networks, working across ~36 data sources, and automate dispatch, securing billions in new backbone contracts while cutting legacy costs.

Texas DPS (Rangers SOG) — stood up a Foundry instance in under 48 hours during the Kerr County floods, coordinating rescues and helping recover 117 of 119 victims faster than ever before.

MaineHealth — applying AI agents to overturn insurer denials in real time, automating revenue integrity and enabling the system to “win more with less.”

Karpus Maximus!

$200.

Meanwhile, no word from controversial short-seller Andrew Left who almost singlehandedly seems to have started the most recent selloff by making widely published negative comments about Palantir (and – reminder - who faces a spring trial on 1 count of engaging in a securities fraud scheme, 17 counts of securities fraud and one count of making false statements to federal investigators for a long-running market manipulation scheme). 🤦‍️

Keith’s Investing Tip: There is no such thing as easy money on Wall Street. That’s why you want to focus on companies with real products, real sales and real customers. To paraphrase the late Steve Jobs, if everything you do is customer focused, profits will follow. To which I add, so will stock prices over time.

2 – Musk’s new $1T pay pack – I’m a fan

Tesla’s board just proposed a new 12-tranche pay package that could hand Unka Elon up to 423 million more shares and boost his stake to somewhere between 25–29%. (Read)

But first...

He’s got to pull off what many believe to be impossible— a $2 trillion market cap, 20 million vehicles delivered, and oh yeah, 1 million Robotaxis and 1 million AI Bots roaming the streets.

I think he’ll get it done.

Love him or hate him, he has a long history of pounding naysayers, critics and non-believers into submission by doing the impossible.

MyPOV is that this is like waving a red flag in front of a raging bull or throwing down a gauntlet in front of a medieval knight itching for action.

Bet against Musk if you like.

I’m not.

3 – Salesforce’s stumble reminds me of Adobe’s foibles

I could hardly believe my eyes when I saw Salesforce CEO Mark Benioff grousing about Palantir to CNBC’s Jim Cramer this week. (Watch)

I’ve long maintained that Salesforce.com has never been “all that” and caught a lot of flak from folks who disagreed with me. Still do, in fact.

But Benioff’s thinly veiled rant struck me more as whining – not a good look for such a smart guy imho.

Here’s the thing.

Salesforce beat on earnings ($2.91 vs. $2.78 expected) and revenue ($10.24B vs. $10.14B), but the market saw through it. Growth is slowing, guidance is soft, and marketing/commerce products are stumbling. (Read)

The company’s been stuck in single-digit revenue growth since mid-2024—while true AI beneficiaries like Microsoft, Nvidia and Palantir are sprinting ahead.

Benioff is trying to convince Wall Street that rolling out Agentforce AI with 6,000+ paid deals, dropping $8B on Informatica, and juicing the buyback program to $50B will move the needle.

AI or not, I am hard pressed to see that.

The situation reminds me very much of Adobe’s stumble a few years back when it struggled to transition from its legacy Creative Suite model to a cloud-based subscription service.

Back then and like Salesforce today, Adobe faced slowing growth and market skepticism despite strong fundamentals because investors questioned its ability to innovate and compete in a rapidly evolving tech landscape.

Adobe’s pivot to Creative Cloud eventually paid off, but not without painful quarters of flat performance and doubts about its vision.

Salesforce’s push into AI with Agentforce feels similarly precarious—big bets on new tech and acquisitions may take time to bear fruit. Meanwhile, I think the market’s impatience could keep pressure on the stock until tangible results emerge.

Putskies or simply continue to avoid.

4 – Broadcom’s mystery customer and a big beat – hooyah!

Broadcom reported earnings, beating both top and bottom-line estimates (Read):

Revenue came in at $15.96 billion, a 22% YoY increase

GAAP net income was $4.14 billion, swinging from a $1.88 billion loss last year (due to a one-time tax provision)

Guidance for Q4 raised to $17.4 billion, above Wall Street’s $17.02 billion estimate

The stock popped after Broadcom revealed a $10 billion custom AI chip order from a new client

The street says the ginormous $10B customer driving things is OpenAI.

I wouldn’t be surprised.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, artificial intelligence will go down as the biggest investing theme in recorded human history.

Every business on the planet will adapt, adopt, or die.

And the same is true for investors.

Invest accordingly or you will get left behind, no two ways about it.

Meanwhile, I prefer a few other more focused names with what I consider better upside, but that’s just me and in keeping with my view of the markets. It’s not perfect but it works for me (and the OBA Family, I might add).

I am super happy for everyone who owns Broadcom even though I don’t and wish I did – well done, gang!!!! 💯😀

5 – The September issue of One Bar Ahead® drops today 😀

Keep an eye on your email if you’re an OBAer!

The September issue drops later today and I’m super excited to share this month’s research with you along with two new recommendations poised for what I believe could be some spectacular performance in the months ahead.

Now… if you’re not an OBAer and you’re already confident in your strategy and loving your results, terrific – I am super happy that you’ve got your bases covered for the simple reason that many investors are still throwing darts and wondering why they’re falling behind.

On the other hand, if you’d like some help or simply the knowledge needed to be a more confident, consistent and effective investor, I’d like to toss my hat in the ring.

Many OBAers tell me that what they’ve learned has had a life-changing impact … and not just when it comes to markets either.

Music to my ears, frankly.

There’s a whole lot more to life than money!