Bitcoin at $55,000 makes me wonder if the Puppet Master is back
Oct 07, 2021Good morning!
Looks like kicking the can down the road is good enough for a rally as Congress averts a debt default. Not that I’m a cynic but here’s how I see the situation.
Here’s my playbook:
1 – Dow jumps on news Congress will avert a debt default
You and I run out of money when we spend more than we make. Congress simply raises the debt “limit.” How about spending less??!!
2 – People don’t call him the puppet master for nothing
News broke that George Soros’ fund apparently owns “some” bitcoin … which strikes me as a lot like saying Zuckerberg has a few shares of Facebook.
Coincidence that bitcoin blew through $55,000 a coin?
Let’s not forget the dude – Soros - crashed the Bank of England in 1992. Nor that the Soros Family Office was fined by Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission in 2018 for stock market manipulation. He knows a thing or two about moving markets.
Bitcoin’s run, incidentally, is a 98.9% updraft from lows put in on January 4th.
3 – Play to win or don’t play at all
I hear from people all the time who sell out at the first sign of trouble only to get left in the dust when another updraft starts. That’s too bad.
You’ve got to think about why you’re buying stocks to begin with … because you want to build wealth based on where they’re going, not where they’ve been. As long as the business case for owning ‘em remains, there is no logical reason to sell but every reason to buy.
Frankly, I hope that’s exactly what you’ve been doing!
4 – Doing it?
Piper Sandler’s biannual survey shows American teens consider buying clothing, shoes and accessories their top post-Covid priority. Nike, American Eagle and Lululemon Athletica are top brands to buy. I’d go with Nike (NKE) of the three retailers but think the real winner will be JPMorgan Chase (JPM) when somebody has to pay for all the credit they’ll need.
5 – GM sets some OMG targets
In an era where companies are refusing to give guidance for even 3 months into the future, GM announced plans to double revenue by 2030 to $280B. If that sounds pretty nuts, it is.
GM reported $122.5 billion in sales in 2020, meaning their projected earnings are roughly 2.2x what they did last year. These figures are supposedly based on their new commitment to ramping up EV efforts with $35B in development spending by 2025.
We’ll see how it goes. Their only EV so far, the Chevy Bolt, is being recalled after numerous battery fires, and underperforms the competition by nearly every metric. And management believes it can field a fleet of at least 1 million self-driving vehicles by 2030?
Hmmm.
Bottom Line
People get so consumed in the market’s minor squiggles that they lose track of the big picture. Not surprisingly that works against them.
Don’t “major” in “minor” stuff!
Make it a GREAT day!
As always, I am with you every step of the way.
Thanks for reading along.
Keith
