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☕ Best stock market open of the year?

Jan 13, 2025

Howdy! 👋

Markets are down in early going as the selling continues.

My guts – and more than 4 decades in global markets – are telling me the selling is getting overdone.

In fact, I’m seeing some buying as I type which means that in as much as the headlines are telling you that things are going to heck in a handbasket, the world’s best investors are doing what I constantly encourage you to think about… buying.

Not everything, of course.

Quality names only.

Frankly, I am glad that we're getting back to earnings because the markets tend to lurch from headline to headline absent something to chew on - which has very much been the case for the past few weeks.

I think good numbers could jumpstart the markets or at least put a floor under it, a point I made in last night’s “get ready for the week ahead” short. (Watch)

Pullbacks, corrections, dips – whatever you want to call what’s happening – come and go more regularly that most people are prepared to believe. And you will inevitably miss the boat if you aren’t prepared to take action when that happens.

Today’s massive drop could well be the greatest stock opening ever.

Perspective, tactics, mindset… it ALL matters.

So get your dang head in the game and get in the fight!

Keith’s Investing Tip: You make your money on down days but that doesn’t become apparent until you see ‘em in the rear-view mirror.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – What’s “so special” about these two stocks today?

I sat down with the venerable Stuart Varney earlier this morning ahead of the opening bell. We talked for a moment about my take on the selloff and the upcoming earnings season. Then, he asked me point black, “what’s so special about these two stocks?” (Watch)

Many guests shiver when Stuart gets “that tone” but I love it because he doesn’t pull any punches; it’s an honour, in fact. Not many people realize this, but Stuart is an LSE grad, so it makes plenty of sense – he knows what he’s doing.

2 – Has Morgan Stanley had a crisis of conscious when it comes to Tesla?

Morgan Stanley is out with a new Tesla price target… $430 and a bullish case of $800. (Read)

And what do ya know?

Morgan Stanley is citing every one of the things we’ve been talking about for years including Tesla’s autonomous future, Network Services (which includes charging, FSD, software and more), robotics, AI, fleet operations and more.

Better late than never, I say.

Tesla shares have returned approximately 2,749.54% over the past decade. This means that a $10,000 investment in Tesla made ten years ago would be worth about $284,954 today. 

The S&P 500, by comparison, has turned in a very respectable (but far less) 185% over the same time frame. This means that a $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 made ten years ago would be worth about $28,600 today.

So why are Tesla shares in reverse today?

That’s coming from Europe where Stichting Pensioenfonds ABP has apparently sold all of its $585 million stake in Tesla because it disagrees with Musk’s pay package. (Read)

I have no problem with an organization taking the high ground for any reason but let’s be clear… high horse or not, where’s the line item for how much money the fund made while holding Tesla?

If they really want to put their money where their morals are, why not sell at cost?

Asking for a friend… 🤦‍

Keith’s Investing Tip: Why individual investors continue to wait for Wall Street analysts when it comes to companies like Tesla is beyond me. Analysts tend to rely on backward-looking data and groupthink. You’ve got to “think forward” if you want to win, which is why I constantly encourage you to lean into the future, to use forward-looking strategies, and to identify opportunities before they’re mainstream - like spotting the rise of AI, customizable medicine, or Tesla’s dominance.

3 – Buy Moderna on the dip?

Moderna lowered its 2025 revenue forecast by $1 billion, now expecting $1.5–$2.5 billion in annual sales. The reduction is driven by slow adoption of its RSV vaccine and declining demand for COVID-19 vaccines. (Read)

Moderna’s down hard.

Should you buy it?

The company has a wide portfolio and a promising pipeline that’s appealing to many.

I prefer a few other names with what I believe to be considerably better profit potential, longevity and stability. But that’s just me.

My goal from an investing perspective remains customizable medicine.

I believe that we will solve many of the toughest problems humanity faces within the next 20 years including cancer neuro degenerative diseases and more. I also believe that AI and new biotechnologies will play a huge role in making that happen. So I want to own companies that I believe will win the race now, before others figure out the game at hand and while prices are still at bargain-basement levels.

It’s a short list.

Hopefully, you’re thinking along the same lines and have this covered. If not, I’ll be here if you need me or would like some help finding ‘em.

4 – El Zucko v Apple: Pot, Meet Kettle

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg slammed Apple over what he calls “random rules” and a lack of innovation during a podcast with Joe Rogan. (Read)

I was almost nodding along… until he claimed Meta’s profits would double if Apple eased up on those pesky “random rules.”

Strikes me as classic spoilt tech bro logic… blame somebody else when you’re not making enough money at your customer’s expense.

Here’s a thought, Mark.

How about running Meta like a boss and figure out how to make bank despite Apple. You know, by using the very innovation and competence you claim that Apple lacks.

I suspect Steve Jobs would have laughed you outta the room.

5 – Chips Falling … into place

Chip stocks are taking a hit today, with Nvidia (NVDA) leading the tumble at -5%, as the Biden administration tightens restrictions on AI chip exports. While the headlines scream "risk," savvy investors know where there's smoke, there's fire … and opportunity. (Read)

Why?

Export restrictions might cause temporary ripples, but they also spark innovation and domestic investment. When one door closes, another one – often far more lucrative - opens.

The long-term play here?

Companies like NVDA may double down on R&D or capitalize on demand closer to home.

Many are expecting newly (re) elected President Trump to relax chip regs and I have no idea if that’s true or not. Nor do I care.

I’m more interested in the fact that chips power everything from AI to your favorite binge-worthy series, and that demand isn't going anywhere.

Chips are as “must have” as it gets.

Just a few of the vectors I’m following:

The global AI market is projected to grow from $150 billion in 2023 to $1.8 trillion by 2030, with chips as the backbone of AI training and deployment. Advanced GPUs and TPUs (like those from Nvidia and AMD) are essential for powering machine learning, natural language processing, and autonomous systems.
Data centers already account for ~40% of high-end chip demand, and this is expected to grow exponentially with cloud computing, IoT, and AI-driven applications. Companies like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google are building massive data centers—each a goldmine for chipmakers.
Electric vehicles (EVs) require 2,000–3,000 chips per car, compared to about 1,000 for traditional vehicles. Hybrids and even normal cars, too… as they get smarter.
The global 5G market alone is expected to reach $667 billion by 2030, fueling demand for chips.
AI systems like ChatGPT, self-driving algorithms, and recommendation engines require an ever-increasing amount of computational power, meaning the more AI grows, the more chips are needed.

MyPOV: Don't get rattled. Get ready. The export restrictions everybody is so worked up about are far more likely to be a “gold rush” of new innovation.

You know what to do.