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Mar 30, 2023

Good morning! 👋

I am continually amazed by how many perma-bears remain trapped on the sidelines.

Thankfully, we’re not among ‘em!

Here’s my playbook.

De-dollarization gaining speed

It’s a trend I first wrote about after a particularly hair-raising trip into mainland China back in 2010 when I attended a private, invitation-only event along Shanghai’s Bund and came face to face with Beijing’s inner circle.

I knew two things in an instant: 1) The world would never be the same, and 2) the USD really was at risk. I told my research clients back then that it would happen within the next 10 to perhaps 20 years, tops.

I hoped I was wrong.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t appear that way.

According to aseanbriefing.com, ASEAN finance ministers and central banks consider dropping the US dollar, euro, and yen, and Indonesia wants to phase out Visa and Mastercard in favour of settlements in local currencies. (Read)

We saw a similar thing happen with the euro, which was so strong a few years back that supermodel Gisele Bundchen (aka Tom Brady’s ex) insisted on payment in euros.

This time is different.

China’s charm offensive is working.

The yuan IS next.

Investors: Most of the top-tier companies have a treasury function that’ll compensate, but the broader concern is a global abandonment of the USD. I expect China’s digital yuan to replace USD as an international clearing mechanism—and the fact that so many inside the Beltway can’t see this coming tells me that it’s all but inevitable.

300 million jobs are screaming “buy AI”

People long for the way things were, not realizing that every challenge creates an opening.

Case in point, there’s a new study suggesting that there may be 300 million full-time jobs at risk because of AI. Some 18% of work globally could be automated, according to Goldman Sachs economists. (Read)

I think the numbers are actually far higher.

You know what to do.

OBA Thoughts: This isn’t just high tech. Trades ROCK and always have. I think there’ll be a new wave of trade-oriented stocks on offer within the next few years, most of which will prove to be far more valuable than so-called “tech” offerings.

Warren Buffett’s endgame matches up

“Uncle B” has upped his stake in Occidental Petroleum again, according to SEC filings.

Most people think this is about oil.

It’s not.

Buffett is likely moving on carbon, scale, and longer-term investments that will carry the company beyond dinosaur juice.

I like another oil company better because it’s got a considerably better, more aggressive, and deeper “alts” plan. Two, actually. Upgrade to Paid

You can’t have EVs without raw materials

The US & Japan announced an agreement, effective immediately, to strengthen supply chains for critical minerals (cobalt, graphite, lithium, manganese, nickel) that are critical in producing EVs, semiconductors, and other technology. (Read)

Good!

China currently controls a huge slice of dang-near everything, including most of the refining capacity for cobalt, lithium, and nickel.

Time to take another hard look at Japanese stocks.

Oh, the irony 🤦‍♂️

I asked for your feedback on the impact of social media yesterday, and it was almost universally in agreement… social media is actually anti-social.

Then, of course, I heard from the inevitable troll.

There’s always one.

An individual I don’t know took the opportunity to go on the attack while in the same breath telling me he felt “sorry” I hold the views I do on a completely different topic.

Talk about irony (and inadvertently proving my point)—doh! 🤦‍♂️

Investing is about optimism, and getting there means learning to find opportunity. Sometimes that comes from common ground, but at other times it comes from seeing things differently.

I’ve received thousands of wonderful emails, calls, tweets, and more over the years. Your insight impresses the heck out of me, as do the fabulous stories and experiences you share. And for that, I am thankful. I love the friendships we’ve built and have yet to build.

YOU rock!

Thanks for taking a moment to chime in!