Apple $3 trillion, doomsayers 0

Good morning! 👋

People point to a long list of things that could go wrong as justification for sitting on the sidelines because they want to be “right.”

The world’s most successful investors focus on being profitable.

Be “in to win” or you won’t... win.

June performance:

• S&P 500: Up 5.18%, best month since January.
• Nasdaq: Up 5.07%, fourth consecutive positive month.
• Dow: Up 3.69%, best month since November.

Second quarter:

• S&P 500: Up 6.99%, third straight quarter of gains.
• Nasdaq: Up 11.2%, back-to-back positive quarters.
• Dow: Up 2.55%, on track for a third winning quarter.

Year-to-date and first half:

• S&P 500: Up 14.51%, best first half since 2018.
• Nasdaq: Up nearly 30%, best first half since 1983.
• Dow: Up 2.94%.

Here’s my playbook.

Apple $3 trillion, doomsayers 0

If I had a buck for every investor who’s argued with me over the years about why/how Apple couldn’t get bigger or more valuable, Jeff Bezos would be vacationing on my yacht. 🤦‍♂️

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, Team Cook is just getting started!

My only fear is that I may not own enough... shares, that is.

$200.

Inflation “just” 0.3%

The May Core PCE came in at 4.6% versus 4.7% expected by economists who, mind you, haven’t been able to get a dang thing right for a long time. (Read) But that’s a story for another time.

Traders, of course, love it.

Why?

Because that data point—a reading that’s only 0.1% better than expected—is being interpreted as a sign that Team Powell may have another data point at its disposal that makes the case for not doing another rate hike. So they’re getting on the gas—meaning they’re buying.

We’ve talked about this many times, which is why I won’t bore you to tears.

Remember:

• Traders fear the cost of money, not the Fed. So when they think the Fed will hike, they’ll hit the sell button to get under VAR (Value at Risk) levels. If they think the Fed may back off or at least pause, they will lever up and “buy up” like they’re doing today and, practically speaking, since last October.
• Investors can keep the odds of success on our side of the table by using simple, powerful tactics like DCA/VCA, which we talk about frequently in One Bar Ahead®, my premium research journal. I’d love to have you on board if that’s of interest, BTW.

Airbnb bargains heading our way!

Millions of aspiring Airbnb landlords bought homes with the intention of renting ‘em out using so-called DSCR loans to finance their purchases. DSCR loans, in case you’re not familiar with ‘em, are loans that require no personal income verification, only the property’s income, to qualify.

Now, according to Reventure CEO Nick Gerli, “that bubble is collapsing.” (Watch)

While that stinks for those who piled on in search of easy money, I see a bright side.

There are some really cool Airbnb properties out there that may come up for sale. I’d like to own this wine country villa in California, for example.

Prices could drop like a rock, which means that anybody who wants to pick up a home on the cheap could have a shot at doing so.

Noriko and I have our eyes peeled.

You?

Pharma eyes a new deal

Bausch + Lomb agreed to purchase Novartis’s dry eye drop for $1.75 billion. (Read)

One of the surest signs that the economic expansion we’re living through has legs, even though many don’t want to believe it, is large deals in the healthcare space like this one.

Capital + life-improving technology = winning combo.

It’s a proven formula that, funny enough, we’re going to play yet again in the July issue of One Bar Ahead®, which will hit your email later today. In fact, we’ve got three big pharma players holding gobs of cash that, I have no doubt, are busy making deals even as I type. Upgrade to Paid

Will Indy flop?

Indiana Jones has just hit the theaters for one last adventure, but early reports suggest the ticket take may not be as big as expected. (Read)

I have a hard time believing the movie stinks, but I could be entirely wrong. It wouldn’t be the first time a major action star has overstayed his or her welcome. I hope not because I love my heroes just as much as the next person.

Like millions, though, I’m going to wait for the video.

That’s the real issue.

Technology is getting so good that folks would rather not go to the theatre and, instead, watch big-name productions in the comfort of their own homes. No pesky, sugared-up kids, cell phones, and obnoxious seatmates needed.

At the same time, movie tickets have gotten prohibitively expensive and, honestly, not a lot of movies are compelling, according to several recent post-COVID surveys.

Many investors think streaming is the answer, but that’s a tough row to hoe at the moment. Competition is accelerating, and the same problems that plagued TV with advertising and resulted in viewers ditching cable are surfacing again.

Hmmm.

Meanwhile, I’m going to continue investing in chips and data tech, for the simple reason that regardless of “where” people watch what they want to watch, it’s all going to be digital.

You?

Bottom Line

Optimism fuels innovation.

Innovation fuels opportunity.

Opportunity fuels profits.

Ergo... invest in optimism!!!

As always, let’s finish the week strong—MAKE it a great day!

Keith 😊

PS: We’re going to be taking some extra time next week to be with our families for the 4th of July holiday here in the United States. So let’s plan on resuming our regular comms the week of July 10.

As always, I will be watching the markets closely and plan on being in touch immediately if there’s anything requiring your immediate attention. Meanwhile, I anticipate being on Twitter sporadically (@fitz_keith). I’ll also be posting a few things here and there on Instagram if you’d like to check in (keith.fitz.gerald) - and I hope you do!