2 to buy, 2 to sell

Good morning!

‍History shows very clearly that the biggest profits go to those who buy when “others are despondently selling.”

What’s happening right now certainly qualifies.

Not all stocks are equal though.

Here's my playbook:

2 to buy, 2 to sell

The markets have gone from side show to that other kind of show with four letters I can’t print here in a hurry, leaving millions of investors wondering what to buy and sell.

This isn’t rocket science.

Buy stuff that people “can’t live without” and sell stuff that people find “nice to have.”

I shared my thoughts with the fabulous Stuart Varney this morning, including a few picks and a price prediction that’s all but guaranteed to get me uninvited from every cocktail party on Wall Street for the next thousand years. (Watch)

“Buy when others are despondently selling.” I wish I could take credit for saying so, but I am merely passing along the wisdom of a mentor, the late Sir John Templeton who is remembered as one of the greatest investors ever to play the game.

Yes, it’s tough and undeniably scary, especially now. There’s no getting around that … the angst is palpable. But that doesn’t change the fact that it’s EXACTLY what you want to do if you can!

Sorry, Mr. President. The Fed can’t fix this

I was a lone voice in the wilderness for a long time and, in doing so, harshly critical of the Fed. Now, though, the tune is changing.

Allianz Chief Economist, Mohammed El Arian mirrored my assertion over the weekend saying that the Fed was arrogant and naïve. (Read)

Which actually makes me kinda bullish now that I think about it!

You can’t spell crypto without cry

Celsius, a crypto lending provider, kicked off a $200 billion wipeout over the weekend when it halted all withdrawals and transfers after their token plunged in value. (Read)

Understandably, this had a knock-on effect and Bitcoin has crashed more than 20% as of writing this. Binance has even temporarily paused withdrawals as they work to solve a “stuck transaction”.

Somebody will undoubtedly call this a buying opportunity.

Dust needs to settle first.

In the meantime, it might not be a horrible idea to buy puts against the likes of Microstrategy (MSTR), Coinbase (COIN), and Marathon Digital (MARA) all of which are closely tied to crypto prices in one way or another.

And continue to invest in Wall Street’s major money movers, all of whom are moving into digital currencies.

Skynet may already be born

A Google engineer named Blake Lemoine has been suspended following his assertion to higher-ups that LaMDA, Google’s Language Model for Dialogue Applications, is sentient. (Read)

Ostensibly, he’s on leave for violating confidentiality policies but that dog doesn’t hunt. Engineers I’ve talked to over the past several years say with the utmost confidence (and very quietly for reasons you can easily imagine) that there are several AI applications nearing sentience.

Admittedly, I don’t know whether to be terrified or excited. Probably both, honestly.

What to do: Buy a “spread” including the brains, the chips and the dataset. That’s Google, Intel and a super specialized defense contractor.

**Note: I’ll have the details in today's One Bar Ahead™ update so keep an eye on your email if you’re an OBAer. (And click here if you want to be!)

META going sub $100

Long time CEO Sheryl Sandberg resigned from META and the mutual affection society began almost instantly even as investors were caught by surprise. She’s a long-time friend, sorry to see her go, a trusted partner … blah, blah blah.

I suggested something wasn’t right.

Now this: Meta is reportedly investigating Sandberg’s use of Facebook resources for years. (Read)

More fuel for the gristmill. I think the stock is going sub $100.

Bottom Line

You can't blame the markets for your losses any more than you can expect it to congratulate you for your wins.

Get busy!

Keith